1. TB notification in Hong Kong
Year
Notification rate per 100,000
Rate of decline
1951
689
1961
397
5.4%
1971
223
5.6%
1981
149
4.0%
1991
109
3.1%
2002 97

2. Estimates on TB incidence and prevalence
No prevalence surveys
Indirect estimates only
Incidence rate about 140/100,000 and 120/100,000 for year 1999 and 2002 assuming 80% cases detected
Prevalence rate: ?240/100,000 if each case of bacillary TB last for two years (??over-estimate)

3. Case detection rate
DOTS case detection rate: 56% (1999) and 51% (2002) (WHO figures)
Proportion of TB patients seeking medical care from private sector unknown
Average age SS +ve over 50
More and more reactivation case
Difficult to separate out effect of aging

5. The way forward
? Examine the relative importance of endogenous reactivation and recent transmission as a cause of disease
? Enhanced communication with private doctors for better case detection and tracking of treatment outcome
? Cohort studies/ ? Prevalence surveys of disease and infection