1. Grain Price Forecasts and the Implications for Animal Agriculture
4th Egg Industry Center Issues Forum
Denver, Colorado
Apr. 11, 2012
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use ? 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
95.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
164.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,358
14,558
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
801
Imports 14 8 28 20 15
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,506
15,374
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,793
4,600
5,200
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,021
5,000
4,950
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,405
1,420
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,700
1,900
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,705
13,470
Ending Stocks
1,616
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.20
5.00 ?
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
73.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.5
43.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,056
3,202
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
250
Imports 13 15 14
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,286
3,467
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,630
1,660
Seed & Residual
106
110
130
116
126
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,290
1,550
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,036
3,335
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.25
11.50 ?
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 3 3

4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use ? 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
63.2
59.2
53.6
54.4
55.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.9
44.5
46.3
43.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,499
2,218
2,207
1,999
2,087
Beg. Stocks
306
657
976
862
793
Imports
127
119 97
120
Total Supply
2,932
2,993
3,279
2,982
3,100
Food
927
919
926
930
935
Seed 78 69 71 79 83
Feed & Residual
255
150
132
180
Exports
1,015
879
1,289
1,000
975
Total Use
2,275
2,018
2,417
2,189
2,173
Ending Stocks
937
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.78
4.87
5.70
7.30
6.30 ?
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 4 4

5. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Wheat Production
Source: USDA 7 7

8. Corn vs. Wheat
Source: CME Group, 4/10/2012

9. Change of Export Pace

10. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal.
7.4 bil. gal.
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

11. Current Futures
Source: CME Group, 4/10/2012

12. Situation Facing Egg Producers in 2012
Higher feed prices for most of year
Corn: $5.80-$6.60/bu in 2011/ $5.18 in 2010/2011
Soybean meal: $290-$320/ton in 2011/ $345 in 2010/2011
Feed prices should moderate moving into 2012/13 crop year
Source: USDA-ERS

13. Egg Production Growth Slow
* Forecast
Source: USDA-ERS 13

14. Egg Prices Will Decline
* Forecast
Source: USDA-ERS 14

15. Planted Area for the 8 Majors
Source: USDA-ERS

16. Corn Use for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

17. Soybean Use for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

18. Wheat Use for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

19. Crop Prices for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

20. Egg Stats for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

21. Egg Stats for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

22. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: