1. Probability
LG: To conduct chance experiments, identify and describe possible outcomes and recognise variation in results

2. …how likely something is…
Probability is how likely something is to happen. You might also hear it called chance. Probability can be expressed as fractions, decimals or percentages, or on a probability scale.

3. What is Probability
Probability or chance is how likely something is to happen:
If something has a low probability, it is unlikely to happen.
If something has a high probability, it is likely to happen.

4. Loving Likelihood Language!!! -Probability Line
In small groups, order these words on a likelihood line!
Note: You can place them in the same group (e.g. 100% is the same as Certain)
Impossible
Sure
Always
Not very likely
Unlikely
Maybe
Less Likely
Never
No chance
Very Likely
50/50
Absolute
More Likely
Either way
100%
ZERO
Equal
Certain
Definite

5. Probability Language Use these words to describe everyday events:
The sun will rise tomorrow ___________
You will live to be 500.
You spin a coin and get a head.
You will see a bus on your way home.
You will see an ambulance on your way home.
Mr Strobel will shave his beard

6. Use probability language to describe the likelihood of:
What are the chances? 1. 2.
Event
Probability?
Picking a black ball
Picking a white ball
Picking a dotty ball
Event
Probability?
Picking a black ball
Picking a white ball
Picking a dotty ball
Extension:
If I took out the 5 black balls, how likely would I be to pick a white or dotty ball?
Extension:
If I took out the 5 black balls, how likely would I be to pick a white or dotty ball?

7. Coin Toss Activity
LG: To conduct a chance experiment

8. Dice Activity
LG: To conduct a chance experiment

9. Car race game (play with a partner)
LG: To conduct a chance experiment
12 cars are having a race.
To move the cars roll two dice, find the total score and move that car forward 1 space.
The first car to move four spaces is THE WINNER!
I predict that car ___ will win the race because:
Predict which is def going to win, which is definitely going to lose.
Draw this table in your Math book

10. Car race Which car won the most races? Which car didn’t win any races?
Why are some cars more likely to win than others?