1. 2012 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation
Apr. 12, 2012
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use ? 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
95.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
164.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,358
14,558
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
801
Imports 14 8 28 20 15
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,506
15,374
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,793
4,600
5,200
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,021
5,000
4,950
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,405
1,420
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,700
1,900
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,705
13,470
Ending Stocks
1,616
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.20
5.00 ?
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
73.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.5
43.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,056
3,202
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
250
Imports 13 15 14
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,286
3,467
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,630
1,660
Seed & Residual
106
110
130
116
126
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,290
1,550
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,036
3,335
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.25
11.50 ?
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 3 3

4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use ? 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
63.2
59.2
53.6
54.4
55.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.9
44.5
46.3
43.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,499
2,218
2,207
1,999
2,087
Beg. Stocks
306
657
976
862
793
Imports
127
119 97
120
Total Supply
2,932
2,993
3,279
2,982
3,100
Food
927
919
926
930
935
Seed 78 69 71 79 83
Feed & Residual
255
150
132
180
Exports
1,015
879
1,289
1,000
975
Total Use
2,275
2,018
2,417
2,189
2,173
Ending Stocks
937
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.78
4.87
5.70
7.30
6.30 ?
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 4 4

5. Principal Crop Area
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Crop Intentions
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Corn Intentions
Source: USDA-NASS

9. Soybean Intentions
Source: USDA-NASS

10. Winter Wheat Plantings
Source: USDA-NASS

11. Durum Wheat Intentions
Source: USDA-NASS

12. Spring Wheat Intentions
Source: USDA-NASS

13. Historical Performance
Source: USDA-NASS

14. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14

15. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 15 15

16. World Wheat Production
Source: USDA 16 16

17. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

18. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

19. Corn vs. Wheat
Source: CME Group, 4/10/2012

20. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS

21. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS

22. Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS

23. Change of Export Pace

24. Corn Grind for Ethanol

25. Ethanol Stocks
Source: DOE, EIA

26. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal.
7.4 bil. gal.
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

27. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

28. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

29. Projected ‘11 Season-Average Wheat Price

30. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

31. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

32. Projected ‘12 Season-Average Wheat Price

33. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
Supply/demand concerns
Intentions vs. plantings
Biofuel growth and energy demand
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2011/12
USDA
Futures
(4/10/12)
2012/13
Corn
$6.20
$5.92
$5.28
Soybeans
$12.25
$12.39
$13.09
Wheat
$7.30
$7.21
$5.98

34. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: