1. Environmental targets for the NEC analysis
M. Amann, W. Asman, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, C. Heyes,
Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, F. Wagner
Environmental targets for the NEC analysis
Meeting of the NECPI working group, March 29-30, 2007

2. Target setting for the NEC analysis
TSAP has established environmental targets for 2020
In the meantime, methodology, data and boundary conditions have changed:
Ecosystem-specific deposition for eutrophication
Multi-year meteorology
Extension to EU-27
Extension to Norway
Mapping of environmental targets to new conditions has been done in NEC report #2 on the basis of relative improvements stated in TSAP

3. Impact indicators for 2000 computed with 5-years meteorology compared to 1997 met.
*) with different population data

4. TSAP environmental targets

5. Translation of eutrophication target
TSAP target (-43% km2) was calculated with grid-average deposition
NEC analysis applies ecosystem-specific deposition, which is generally higher for ecosystems
TSAP percentage target is not achievable with new calculation method
NEC approach:
Relative change in km2 achieved with TSAP emission reductions recomputed with ecosystem-specific deposition.
Resulting reduction percentage (-31%) applied for NEC

6. Distribution of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads TSAP calculations vs. NEC optimizations with Euro-VI

7. Extension to EU-27 and Norway
TSAP targets have been computed for EU-25
For NEC, percentage changes have been applied to EU-27 + Norway.

8. Translation of the TSAP environmental targets
EU25
EU27
EU-27 + Norway
Unit
TSAP target for 2020
Impact indicator for 2000
Target level 2020
Lost life years
YOLL
47%
200.3
106.2
213.8
113.3
214.4
113.6
Eutrophication
1000 km2
31%
913,7
681,7
1,019,9
703,8
1,033,0
705,6
Acidification – forests
74%
255,9
66,6
259,4
67,4
262,2
68,2
Acidification – freshwater
39%
37,6
22,9
37,5
105,2
64,1
Premature mortality
# of cases
10%
18,7
16,9
20,3
18,3
20,4

9. Summary Health impacts for PM: Acidification target:
EU-27+N –wide reductions in YOLLs by 47%
Acidification target:
EU-27+N –wide reduction in unprotected ecosystems area by 74% for forests and 39% for water.
In each Member State, a 30% gap closure of accumulated excess deposition between CLE and MRR
Eutrophication target:
EU-27+N –wide reduction in unprotected ecosystems area by 31%.
In each Member State, gap closure of accumulated excess deposition between CLE and MRR accumulated by 67% (national proj.) and 61% (PRIMES/CAPRI proj.)
Ozone target:
EU-27+N –wide reduction in premature mortality by 10%

10. Conclusions
There is some ambiguity in translating the targets stated in TSAP to the NEC environment
Revised methodologies, improved data, multi-year meteorology
Extension to EU-27 + Norway
CAFE applied equity criteria for acidification, eutrophication and ozone, but they are not reflected in the TSAP target
The approach applied for this analysis:
Achieves equivalent environmental improvements as stated in the TSAP
Might re-distribute environmental improvements across Member States
Increased flexibility reduces costs for measures