1. Central Department of Economics (CEDECON) Tribhuvan University
Madhesh Human Right (Madhur)’s Talk Program on "Ensuring Human Security in Madhesh: Next 20 Years... Blueprint of Madhesh and Human Capital Development"  Economic Perspective
Uma Shankar Prasad, PhD
Central Department of Economics (CEDECON) Tribhuvan University
2 July 2016

2. Contents Demographic: Population Human capital Environment
Macro-economic indicators
Micro-economic indicators
Concluding remarks

3. Population
Present scenario (51% of national)
* Decadal change (2001 to 2011): Mountain- 6.37%, Hill-11.94% and Terai-19.07%
Why?
* Migration: case of Banke, Bardiya, Kailali, Kanchanpur etc.
* Fertile land for corruption due to more or less economic colonization
* High birth rate
Projection
* About 58% of national population after 20 years

4. * Politically aware and capable human resource would lead the country
Opportunities
* Politically aware and capable human resource would lead the country
Threats
* High population with weak human resource would lead to internal conflict
Solution
* Political and social awareness, birth control, government policy
* Role of politicians, intellectuals, civil society and youth

5. Human Capital Projection? National Literacy Level 2011: 66%
* Tarai Female: 52.7%
* Madheshi Dalit: 34.5%
* Mushhar: around 8%
* Musalman: 43.6%
Participation in governance: around 9%
Projection?
* Dalit and Musalman after 20 years: around 50%

6. * Achieving higher literacy among Dalits and Musalman and even female
Threat
* Achieving higher literacy among Dalits and Musalman and even female
Weakness
* Traditional culture and belief
* Feudal society
Solution
* Residential schools for Dalits and Musalman
* Social awareness and campaigns

7. Environment
Problem
* Destruction of Chure: reduction in agricultural productivity
Cause
* Haphazard settlement
Projection
* Reduction in agricultural productivity
Solution
* Government policy: protected area

8. Macro-economic variables
Revenue collection from Madhesh: around 70% except customs
Government expenditure in Madhes: around 19%
Foreign assistance expenditure in Madhesh: data not available but minimum
Subsistence agriculture
Unskilled labor migration
Informal loan with high interest rate due to lack of banking facilities
Deep-rooted corruption: siphoned out to hill

9. HDI and Poverty HDI 2011 national: 0.490
* Madheshi Dalit: 0.400
* Musalman: 0.422
* Easter and central Tarai: 0.463
* Western Tarai: 0.480
* Mid-western and Far-western Tarai: 0.472
Poverty headcount national 2011: 25.2
* Tarai Dalit: 38.2

10. Micro-economic variables
Caste and dowry system
Traditional consumption system: more expenses on food items
Daughters are regarded as liability and sons as assets
Low wage due to feudal nature of society
Caste and unnatural conflict

11. Concluding remarks Unity is must
Madhesh have both opportunities and threats in economic perspective
Need strong political, economic and social awareness
Shift from agriculture to modern sector
Modernization of agriculture
Strong lobby at national as well as international level for more budget allocation and investment in Madhesh
Unity is must

12. Thank you !
5/12/2019