1. Theft Risk Assessment Service TEG MI Pack – February 2019
Presented by Experian
19th March 2019
MI based upon February 2019 submissions window and subsequent Outlier processing.

2. February TEG MI File Submissions
97 Suppliers expected to send data
82 submitted
15 not received
9 Suppliers data not expected
5 new suppliers
2 no registered supply points
2 exiting service
163 files expected
142 files received
135 passed TRAS file entry criteria
7 files failed TRAS files entry criteria
21 files not received
17 resubmissions
1 Scheme queries received (1 gas, 0 electric).
Total submission volume of 53.3m consumption records (95.35% coverage)
Jan – 51.5m – 92.6%
Dec – 46.97m – 84.43%
Nov m %
Actions Taken
File failures - 2 files failed due to formatting issues (2 x suppliers). 1 file failed due to invalid naming convention (1 supplier). 2 files failed due to invalid tamper code (2 suppliers)
Non Compliant suppliers - all have been sent chaser s.
All TDIS queries responded to within 5 working days.
Note: Supply point coverage is calculated based on the number of unique MPXNs submitted compared to the volume of MPXNs provided by ElectraLink based on SPAA and DCUSA records. The last provided volumes from ElectraLink represent the January 2017 position.
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

3. February TEG MI Match rates
Match Rates – February Submissions
Residential location match rates marginally down, stable
Electric consumption submissions match rate 92.04%
Leading Practice 99.19%
Gas consumption submissions match rate now 92.57%
Leading Practice 98.92%
Commercial match up significantly
Result of one large supplier addressing previous submission issues
Electric consumption submissions %
Leading Practice 44.1%
Gas consumption submissions %
Leading Practice 54.6%
Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. Results represent cumulative match rates in the life of the service.
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

4. February TEG MI Industry theft reporting
Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse.
Confirmed theft volumes reported by “Date Investigation Closed”
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Expert Group: Service Update

5. February TEG MI Residential summary
Residential performance stable
Increase in new QO volumes driven by new theft hotspots [slide 7]. This follows high industry theft volumes last month.
Industry theft volumes fell this month, back in line with long-run average [5]
TRAS-identified rates dipped below long-term average in month [8]. Long term trend improving consistently [9].
TRAS-only volumes above long-term average [5]
No increases in residential engagement [13]
Life of Service
528,430
47,844
55,559
8,859
1,538
Unique Qualified Outliers ,257
Accessed Qualified Outliers ,337
Industry Thefts ,763
TRAS Identified Thefts
Unique TRAS Thefts
Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. “TRAS Only” = Confirmed Thefts with TRAS as Theft Lead Source. “TRAS Identified” = Confirmed Thefts where a TRAS generated a Qualified Outlier regardless of final Theft Lead Source. .
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Expert Group: Service Update

6. February TEG MI Commercial summary
Life of Service
Both industry activity and TRAS model performance below YTD performance in February
Overall industry theft volumes remain lower than average for the second consecutive month [slide 16]
Monthly TRAS identification rates and TRAS only rates also below year-to-date average [14-16]
Despite fall in industry activity, new suppliers are contributing to investigations [17]
11,036
4,955
4,247
159
123
Unique Qualified Outliers
Accessed Qualified Outliers
Industry Thefts
TRAS Identified Thefts
TRAS Only Thefts
Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. “TRAS Only” = Confirmed Thefts with TRAS as Theft Lead Source. “TRAS Identified” = Confirmed Thefts where a TRAS generated a Qualified Outlier regardless of final Theft Lead Source. .
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Expert Group: Service Update

7. February TEG MI Qualified Outlier volumes
Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse.
Qualified Outlier volumes reported by processing month.
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Expert Group: Service Update

8. February TEG MI Residential performance by contract year
Year 3* (*YTD – 8m)
125,702
14,198
18,786
1,790
412
141,067
13,223
18,066
2,752
582
261,661
20,423
18,707
4,317
544
Unique Qualified Outliers
Accessed Qualified Outliers
Industry Thefts
9.5% of industry theft identified
15.2% of industry theft identified
23% of industry theft identified
TRAS Identified Thefts
Unique TRAS Thefts
Monthly TRAS identified rate 21.1% (YTD 23.1%)
Monthly TRAS only rate 3.1% (YTD 2.9%)
Monthly Industry volumes 1,763 (YTD average 1,871)
YTD based on 10 observation periods
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

9. February TEG MI Residential monthly theft identification rates and industry theft volumes
The monthly identification rate above shows the proportion of industry thefts reported as closed in any given month that were identified by the Theft Risk Assessment Service (# TRAS-identified Thefts / # total industry thefts). The Residential sector shows a consistent improvement in identification rates through time, reflecting the benefits of continuous improvement in the underlying models (segmentation refreshes and scorecards).
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

10. February TEG MI Residential breakdown of industry confirmed thefts by classification
06/05/2019
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11. February TEG MI Residential breakdown of industry confirmed thefts by risk index
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

12. February TEG MI Commercial performance by contract year
Year 3* (*YTD)
3,873
1,778
1,196 35 30
2,151
1,083
1,484 49 45
5,012
2,094
1,567 75 48
Unique Qualified Outliers
Accessed Qualified Outliers
Industry Thefts
2.9% of industry theft identified
3.3% of industry theft identified
4.8% of industry theft identified
TRAS Identified Thefts
Unique TRAS Thefts
Monthly TRAS identified rate 2.7% (YTD 4.8%)
Monthly TRAS only rate 1.8% (YTD 3.1%)
Monthly Industry volumes 110 (YTD average 157)
Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. “TRAS Only” = Confirmed Thefts with TRAS as Theft Lead Source. “TRAS Identified” = Confirmed Thefts where a TRAS generated a Qualified Outlier regardless of final Theft Lead Source. .
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

13. February TEG MI Commercial monthly theft identification rates and industry theft volumes
Identification rates have been more volatile in the Commercial sector, and while there is still an underlying improvement in identification rates through time and with model improvements this is less marked than in residential. Over 90% of Commercial theft is identified outside of the current Outlier population – this will be addressed by the Commercial Coverage Expansion and potential changes in the Outlier threshold.
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

14. February TEG MI Commercial breakdown of industry confirmed thefts by classification
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

15. February TEG MI Commercial breakdown of industry confirmed thefts by risk index
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

16. February TEG MI Theft lead source conversion rates
Top residential lead source by volume is “Other”.
Top commercial lead source is “Supplier” – (supplier analytical models).
Conversion rates by “intelligence-led” leads – i.e. Police, Meter Reader, Field Agent and Crimestoppers) are typically much higher than analytical leads (Supplier, TRAS).
Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. Results based on last 24 months observations.
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

17. February TEG MI Residential conversion rates
Residential conversion rates in Year 3 have fallen from Year 2. A contributing factor has been increased reporting of Desktop Reviews – but even excluding theses the conversion rate has fallen from >25% to 20%.
Gas conversion rates have fallen markedly in the latest generation. A current focus of the next generation of scorecards is the feasibility of developing fuel-type specific scorecards.
Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse.
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

18. February TEG MI Commercial conversion rates
In contrast, while the headline Commercial conversion rate in Year 3 has fallen from Year 2, once Desktop Reviews are taken out of the equation the underlying conversion rate has increased year-on-year.
Overall conversion rates are lower than residential – this applies to every lead sources.
Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse.
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

19. Appendices
06/05/2019
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Expert Group: Service Update

20. Appendix I: Additional MI Residential performance – all Outcome closure volumes by date closed
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Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

21. Appendix I: Additional MI Commercial performance – all Outcome closure volumes by date closed
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

22. Appendix I: Additional MI Residential performance - Electric - by contract year
Year 3* (*YTD)
61,410
7,100
15,824
1,112
256
106,799
8,661
14,783
1,824
320
208,319
16,112
15,521
3,175
387
Unique Qualified Outliers
Accessed Qualified Outliers
Industry Thefts
7% of industry theft identified
12.3% of industry theft identified
20.5% of industry theft identified
TRAS Identified Thefts
TRAS Only Thefts
Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. “TRAS Only” = Confirmed Thefts with TRAS as Theft Lead Source. “TRAS Identified” = Confirmed Thefts where a TRAS generated a Qualified Outlier regardless of final Theft Lead Source. .
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

23. Appendix I: Additional MI Residential performance - Gas - by contract year
Year 3* (*YTD)
64,234
7,098
2,962
976
237
34,236
4,562
3,283
630
181
53,432
4,311
3,186
1,142
110
Unique Qualified Outliers
Accessed Qualified Outliers
Industry Thefts
33% of industry theft identified
19.2% of industry theft identified
35.8% of industry theft identified
TRAS Identified Thefts
TRAS Only Thefts
Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. “TRAS Only” = Confirmed Thefts with TRAS as Theft Lead Source. “TRAS Identified” = Confirmed Thefts where a TRAS generated a Qualified Outlier regardless of final Theft Lead Source. .
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

24. Appendix I: Additional MI Commercial performance – Electric - by contract year
Year 3* (*YTD)
1,484
457
887 13 11
674
423
1,156 27 26
2,404
585
1,290 34 23
Unique Qualified Outliers
Accessed Qualified Outliers
Industry Thefts
1.5% of industry theft identified
2.3% of industry theft identified
2.6% of industry theft identified
TRAS Identified Thefts
TRAS Only Thefts
Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. “TRAS Only” = Confirmed Thefts with TRAS as Theft Lead Source. “TRAS Identified” = Confirmed Thefts where a TRAS generated a Qualified Outlier regardless of final Theft Lead Source. .
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

25. Appendix I: Additional MI Commercial – Gas - by contract year
Year 3* (*YTD)
2,534
1,121
309 22 19
1,332
812
328 22 19
2,608
1,557
277 41 25
Unique Qualified Outliers
Accessed Qualified Outliers
Industry Thefts
7.1% of industry theft identified
6.7% of industry theft identified
14.8% of industry theft identified
TRAS Identified Thefts
TRAS Only Thefts
Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. “TRAS Only” = Confirmed Thefts with TRAS as Theft Lead Source. “TRAS Identified” = Confirmed Thefts where a TRAS generated a Qualified Outlier regardless of final Theft Lead Source. .
06/05/2019
Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review