1. Argonne National Laboratory
Argonne Climate Change Capabilities
NEMA – Preparedness Committee Briefing
October 10, 2014
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2. Risk and Infrastructure Science Center (RISC): Core Research Areas
Infrastructure Science: Conduct research and analysis to enhance infrastructure resilience and reduce the risk of disruption or destruction from climate change, natural hazards, accidents, or security threats. Inform the resilient design of future cyber and physical infrastructure to build assets, systems, and networks that are capable of withstanding future threats.
Cyber Analysis and Operations: Provide operations, subject matter experts, and research support for the development and implementation of advanced cybersecurity solutions. Conduct focused analysis of the intersection of cyber and physical risks.
Threat Analysis: Conduct near-real-time, all-source analysis by fusing intelligence with complex datasets and multidisciplinary expertise. Deliver highly sophisticated, scientific analysis through actionable products, portals, and tools.
Emergency Preparedness: Develop and apply methodologies and technologies to assist emergency managers, planners, and responders in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from manmade or natural disasters.

3. Center for Integrated Resiliency Analyses (CIRA) Multidiscipline Virtual Center Integrating
Climate and Physical Processes Modeling: Changes in climate may greatly affect infrastructure and social systems. CIRA will use computational models and tools designed to shed light on these complex physical processes and inform mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Infrastructure Assessment: To manage risks to infrastructure systems, CIRA draws on advanced modeling and simulation technologies and subject matter experts in diverse systems including power, water, transportation, and telecommunications to enhance climate change resilience.
Social Science Modeling: Social dynamics play a role in ecological and economic topics such as climate change, resource scarcity, and epidemics. CIRA will exploit Argonne’s integrated social science modeling capabilities to improve understanding of how social factors influence a community’s resiliency.
High-Performance Computer Systems Modeling: Modeling and simulation look at ways to analyze and understand interactions and feedback mechanisms between societal and physical processes. CIRA will use Argonne’s experience in modeling, simulation, and visualization to perform computational experiments for both physical and social systems.

4. The challenge
The President’s Climate Action Plan (2013) addressed the need for a collaborative effort to combat the ongoing impacts of climate change that are becoming more prevalent; the plan directly addressed the need for increased resilience of buildings and infrastructure.
Barriers to climate change adaptation consistently identified by State, local, and private-sector officials:
Lack of local-level modeling on changes to temperature and precipitation,
Lack of high-resolution climate scenario data needed to justify starting adaptation projects, and
Lack of a local framework for adaptation planning.
Association of Climate Change Officers, Climate Adaptation: A Survey of Concerns Facing Organizations,
Downscaled climate models, coupled with infrastructure modeling and analysis, can inform planning decisions that will result in more resilient infrastructure being designed and built for the future.

5. Argonne is utilizing its supercomputer to generate local-level climate data
Climate Modeling
Argonne is downscaling climate information (down to a 12-km community level) derived from large-scale atmospheric models (typically showing broad State or even multi-State-scale data) for DHS and DOD.
Model uses the Mira supercomputer at Argonne, given process models and statistical distributions that are computationally demanding.
Average Maximum Daily Temp. in Base Year (1995–2005)
Average Maximum Daily Temp. in 2045–2054 Period
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6. Argonne is using downscaled climate data to drive infrastructure impact models
Infrastructure models (e.g., EPfast [electric], Ngfast [natural gas], Polfast [petroleum], Restore©, and transportation system) coupled to climate models to assess climate hazards
Identifies downstream impacts generated by the disruption of infrastructure systems (e.g., from storm surge, drought, heat wave)
For example, Argonne is using the EPfast model to investigate the impacts of midcentury increased ambient temperature on Maine’s electric grid:
Determine impacts on the capacity of power plants, transmission lines, and transformers, as well as growth in demand.
Determine implications on overall grid performance via load flow simulation.
A temperature change of 3–5°C is projected to occur in inland Maine.
The temperature change is expected to influence operational characteristics of power plants and transmission lines, as well as level of demand.
Current heat gain + Solar heat gain = Radiative heat loss + Convective heat loss
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7. Impact model details: EPfast
Linear, steady-state model provides a quick estimate of impacts on the immediate and downstream substations due to:
Uncontrolled islanding
Single or multiple transmission line outages
Single or multiple substation outages
Plant siting and line reinforcement studies
Can be used to assess various climate change hazards:
Storm surge impacts on critical nodes
Heat waves
Graphical and tabular HTML – formatted outputs
Amount of load reduction per substation
Number and size of island grids formed
Applications
- FEMA Region V – Improvised Nuclear Device Analysis
FEMA-DOE New Madrid Seismic Zone Study
DHS Regional Resiliency Assessment Program
Bureau of Land Management Solar Energy Zone Transmission Study

8. Argonne is assessing the resilience of communities to climate hazards
Regional Resilience Assessment Program (RRAP)
Combines tools to assess the resilience of a given urban area, supply chain, or region
Utilizes a cross-disciplinary approach (e.g., urban planners, climate scientists, infrastructure system engineers)
Previous studies have focused on major cities, multi-State infrastructure systems, agricultural systems, and transportation systems
To date, 45 projects have been conducted across the country; many of these considered the impacts of climate change hazards
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9. What we have learned about the state of climate change preparedness
Critical nodes exist in most sectors that already are or could be affected by climate change
Barriers to climate change adaptation can be found at the Federal, State, and local levels
Policy and regulations
Lack of downscaled data informing design standards and guidance
Infrastructure planning processes lack climate change adaptation considerations
Lack of resources
Complexity of climate change hazards and adaptation planning typically requires outside contracting and expertise
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10. Regional Climate System Assessment Framework

11. For more information, please contact: Duane Verner Risk and Infrastructure Science Center Global Security Sciences Division Argonne National Laboratory Dave Brannegan John Hummel Director Director Risk and Infrastructure Science Center Center for Integrated Resiliency Analyses Global Security Sciences Division Global Security Sciences Division Argonne National Laboratory Argonne National Laboratory