1. Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Crash boom bang

2. Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Agenda Status right now Background and LV forecasts Supply of ships The balance Conclusions

3. Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Port calls –rapid decline

4. Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Ships laying idle

5. Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Production of cars, per region

6. Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Sales of cars, per region

7. Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Production – sales, per region + 100% in 7 years !!

8. Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Ordering behavior, 1970 - 2008 1999-2003 191 ships avg: 4,764 ceu 2004-2008 451 ships Avg: 5,307 ceu

9. Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Orderbook 1.2M ceu = 38% fleet 9.3% pa 2004-2008 Vehicle carrier fleet changes (register data)

10. Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Vehicle carrier fleet forecast 5.3% forecast 2009-20132004-2008 Fleet growth 9.3 % yearly FORECAST2009-2013 Removals 647k ceu (+1,575%)

11. Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Vehicle carrier, Supply vs Demand, the Asia Indicator -32% +15% +18% The Asia Indicator illustrates the base demand for vehicle carriers capacity over time

12. Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Vehicle carrier, Supply vs Demand, the Asia Indicator, seaborne tonnes cars

13. Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Conclusions – Average annual net fleet capacity growth 2009-2013: 5.3% – Average annual demand growth 2009-2013: 2.9% – Vehicle carriers (and terminals) under threat from containerization – Can take cargo from conventional roro and general cargo – Turning point: Late-2010 for cars, earlier for project cargoes – modest levels to 2013

14. Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Thank you! Niklas Bengtsson Niklas.bengtsson@lrfairplay.com