1. Q: How can we make people believe our predictions/projections?
Modeling Group
Q: How can we make people believe our predictions/projections?
A: Hard working (??!!)

2. Source of predictability
Intrinsic predictability of phenomena
Initial condition (data assimilation/initialization)
Model (physical parameterization)

3. Prediction/Projection with purpose
Less than 1 month : initial condition
- Increasing observational data
- Estimating error, observation operator
~ Seasonal : initial(CGCM)/boundary(AGCM)
- Making accurate oceanic initial condition
~ Climate Change : boundary condition
- Uncertainties in greenhouse gas concentrations
Model uncertainties in all categories

4. Shukla et al. 2006 Climate Sensitivity
Model error metric (current climate)

5. Academic to operational sector
Small percent of the new graduated student have their job in operational center
- Safe(?) life
- Lack of position
- Freedom in research

6. Further discussion Keep the BBS (possible?)
We expected more warmer BBS than now after the workshop
Comparison of Asian summer monsoon simulation (3 models)

7. Thank you very much!!