1. Life-Course Criminology
Age-Crime Relationship
Stability and Change in Offending

2. The Age-Crime Relationship, 1997
Arrest Rate
4000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Property Crimes, peak age = 16
Violent Crimes, peak age = 18
Age at Arrest

3. Is the Age/Crime Curve Misleading?
Data is AGGREGATE
It could hide subgroups of offenders, or “offending trajectories”
Data is Cross-Sectional
Doesn’t track stability/change over time
Data is OFFICIAL
Cannot tell us about the precursors to official delinquency (childhood antisocial behavior)

4. New and Old Ideas OLD New Crime is the province of adolescents
Theories of delinquency most important
New
Why do some age out of crime while others don’t?
Why is criminality so stable over time?
What causes crime at different stages of life?

5. Antisocial Behavior Is Stable
Correlation between past and future criminal behavior ranges from .6 to .7 (very strong)
Lee Robins- Studies of cohorts of males
Antisocial Personality as an adult virtually requires history of CASB
CASB as early as age 6 related to delinquency
More severe behavior has more stability
“Early onset delinquency” powerful indicator of stability

6. But there is CHANGE 1/2 of antisocial children are never arrested
The vast majority of delinquents desist as they enter adulthood (mid 20s)

7. Explaining Stability and Change in Antisocial Behavior I
TRAIT Explanation
Individuals posses a trait that is stable and criminogenic
Trait established early in life (before delinquency)
Explains stability, but change (desistance)?
If trait is stable, why do people desist from crime?

8. Explaining Stability and Change in Antisocial Behavior II
Cumulative Continuity
Initial antisocial behavior (regardless of cause) has CONSEQUENCES
Knife off opportunity, labeling, attract delinquent peers...
Because the consequences (social circumstances) can change, desistance is plausible

9. Types of Developmental Theory
General theory
Cause of antisocial behavior same for everyone
People may start offending later or earlier depending on when they are exposed to the same sorts of risk factors
Taxonomic Theory
Different types of offenders exist

10. Developmental Taxonomies
Developmental Taxonomy?
All offenders are not the same, all crime is not caused by the same causal forces
There are at least two unique “offending trajectories” present
One groups maybe very stable in their offending
Another might might have a brief delinquency career
Kids are on different offending trajectories for different reasons

11. Review Explaining Stability and Change Three Types of Theories
Why are some kids antisocial early in life?
Why is antisocial behavior so stable?
Why, amidst stability, is there so much change?
Three Types of Theories
Continuity
Continuity and Change (Sampson and Laub)
Continuity or Change (Moffitt)