1. Housing need and reality
The Future of Oxfordshire
Richard Harding

2. View from Hartslock, near Goring
What sort of Oxfordshire do we want?
Do we want this?
View from Hartslock, near Goring

3. Singapore
or this?

4. Timeline to Disaster April 2014
Oxfordshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA)
100,000 new houses
Ox-Cam Expressway & Growth Corridor mooted
One million new houses on Expressway – equates to 300,000 new houses in Oxfordshire by 2050
November 2018
The Oxfordshire Housing and Growth Deal
Oxfordshire agrees to 100,000 new houses in return for £215m from Government
March 2019
Oxfordshire Plan vision
* A fast growing economy
*The delivery of additional housing beyond the 100,000 provided in current Local Plans.

5. The context
This is a doubling of houses and population across the county
See: CPRE Oxon newsletter, Spring

6. Where will the people come from?

7. And then there is Climate Change
A new house takes 50 tons of carbon to build a house – a million houses is one sixth the UKs annual emission
We cannot achieve our carbon emission commitments with this sort of development
Per capita CO2 emissions (T)
Oxfordshire
6.6
West Oxfordshire
6.0
Vale of White Horse
7.1
South Oxfordshire
7.3
Oxford City
4.3
Cherwell
8.6
Greater London
3.8

8. The reality
The SHMA would require an increase of 12,000 in Oxfordshire’s population a year – between 2001 and 2017 the population has risen by 5000 per year (less than 4000 in 2017)*.
The SHMA and Local Plans require 5000 new houses per year in Oxfordshire
- between 2001 and 2016 there was a growth of 1600 households per year*.
For example in South Oxfordshire in the last seven years has built 4000 houses (600 per year) – to hit its target of 28,000 it will need to build 1500 per year.
This all adds up to there is not the capacity nor demand to build this amount of housing
Source: Office for National Statistics

9. Oxfordshire needs 300,000 homes by 2050 More homes means cheaper homes
Thousands of homes being built in the Green Belt and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty
New homes are not zero carbon
Nature is under threat
£9 billion needed for infrastructure - unfunded
We have enough empty homes easily to house all our homeless
Homelessness is not caused by a lack of buildings
It is caused by low wages, cuts in benefits and cuts in social care
Global gold rush for Oxfordshire housing
Near infinite market of overseas investors and second-homers
Investors are driving prices up
There will be enough people in Oxfordshire to fill only 40,000 extra homes
Half of ALL Oxfordshire homes will be empty
Or 600,000 people must be brought in to fill them
MYTH
Oxfordshire needs 300,000 homes by 2050
More homes means cheaper homes
Development is sustainable
More homes would end rough sleeping
REALITY
ACTUAL
FACTS
MYTH BUST

10. Plans for massive growth in Oxfordshire are being developed by the Growth Board and National Government with little debate or accountability
If such growth were to happen it will put massive strains on our natural environment and social structure
If it doesn’t happen we will loss all control on our planning processes
These plans will be a disaster for Climate Change
There is a serious democratic deficit in these decisions