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Comments by Ricardo V. Lago
“The determinants of deposit euroization in the Europena post-transition countries” by Marina Tkalec Comments by Ricardo V. Lago
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Motivation and Conclusions of the paper
Investigate the monetary determinants of deposit euroization ( DE) in 11 post –transition economies Econometric method : VAR and TVAR Uses as two variables as determinants : The exchange rate ( nominal or real ) Interest rate differential Results : Floating rates : Symmetry Fixed o adjustable rates : Hysteresis Policy Recommendations : Strengthen fiscal and financial fundamentals = Maastricht Criteria
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Comments 1 Historical Context : Goldization rather than dollarization ? Fundamental contradiction of International Monetary system Reserve Currencies are weak Strong currencies are nor reserve currencies
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Comments 2 Why dollarization /Euroization at all ?
Trust on Currency = Reputational capital of the government that issues the currency Deposits are promissory notes : banks / governments can and do default on them Superior currency Inferior currency VAR and TVAR Floaters : Poland and Czech Republic Others : Hysteresis or asymmetry Need to explain declining trend : depending on fiscal /debt sustainability Mexico 1982 , Argentina 2000 , Greece 201X ?
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From Dollarization and Euroization to Goldization
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How much gold over the ground ?
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