1. ? ? ! ? ? ! © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 1 ? Evaluating Causal Claims ?

2. © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 2 I hope the seat belt sign is not turned on so frequently! The plane shakes so violently every time it is turned on! Is there a problem in the childs reasoning?

3. © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 3 3 Is There a Relationship Between Ice Cream Sales And The Number of Shark Attacks? Months Ice Cream Sales 0 10000 20000 Jan Jul Dec Months No. of Shark Attacks 0 4 8 Jan Jul Dec

4. © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 4 What is the evidence? Is there a bias? Is the research approach appropriate? Is There a Cause And Effect Relationship Between Youngsters Watching Violence Films And Their Violent Behaviours?

5. © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 5 Distinguish Between Fact, Opinion and Reasoned Argument First of all, you should learn to distinguish: Fact Opinion Reasoned Argument This is Because… Evidence?

6. ? ? ! ? ? ! © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 6 Good Thinking Requires Information and Reasons Fact: Tung Chee Hwa was the first Chief Executive of Hong Kong. Opinion: Mr Tung was a good Chief Executive. Reasoned Argument: Because of the differential appeals and concerns from different parties, groups and walks of life, the government should try its best to implement a policy that is favourable to all people.

7. © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 7 I hope the seat belt sign is not turned on so frequently! The plane shakes so violently every time it is turned on! Is there a problem in the childs reasoning?

8. © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 8 What is Correlation? Months Ice Cream Sales 0 10000 20000 Jan Jul Dec Months No. of Shark Attacks 0 4 8 Jan Jul Dec

9. ? ? ! ? ? ! © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 9 What is Correlation? Is there a relationship between ice cream sales and the number of shark attacks? What kind of relationship is it?

10. © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 10 What is Correlation? Ice Cream Sales No. of Shark Attacks

11. © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 11 What is Correlation? B rises when A rises. B falls when A rises. Does correlation mean a cause and effect relationship? Positive Correlation Negative Correlation

12. © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 12 Can You Identify the Type of Relationship? Family Factors Rebellious Teenager Low Levels of Education When A and B are correlated Low Levels of Education Rebellious Teenager Low Levels of Education

13. © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 13 What is Correlation? Correlation Cause and Effect Relationship

14. ? ? ! ? ? ! © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 14 Some Examples Many private tutorial centres publicise the number of their students who got As or even straight As in public examinations.

15. © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 15 What is the evidence? Is there a bias? Is the research approach appropriate? Is There a Cause And Effect Relationship Between Youngsters Watching Violence Films And Their Violent Behaviours?

16. © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 16 Attractive Product Claims Research Example: Is laser fat reduction treatment effective? Results in a week! 100% Safety Approved! Proven Effectiveness! Money Back Guarantee

17. © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 17 Attractive Product Claims What questions would you ask to find out if the treatment is actually effective? Hints: Who will be the participants? Can everyone participate in the experiment? How to choose the participants? Do all participants receive the same treatment?

18. © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 18 Thinking about Result of Consumer Research Random Sampling

19. © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 19 Thinking about Result of Consumer Research Laser Fat Reduction Treatment No Laser Fat Reduction Treatment Control Experiment Experimental Group vs. Control Group

20. ? ? ! ? ? ! © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 20 Thinking about Result of Consumer Research Other Methods of Control Placebo Double Blind Study Significance of Result (that probably happened not by chance)

21. ? ? ! ? ? ! © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 21 How May Our Thinking Be Affected? What is Fallacy? - Errors in Reasoning and Logic Common Fallacies Guilt by Association / Virtue by Association Popularity & Testimonials Weak Analogies Appeals to Tradition

22. ? ? ! ? ? ! © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 22 Guilt by Association and Virtue by Association J uvenile delinquent and reputation of school (Guilt by Association) - If a student commits an offence, people will think that other students from the same school have bad behaviour too. Can you think of other everyday examples of Guilt by Association and Virtue by Association? Favourable teacher and university (Virtue by Association) - Your favourite teacher graduated from a certain university. Therefore, that particular university must be a good university.

23. ? ? ! ? ? ! © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 23 Popularity & Testimonials Cosmetic products Mobile phones Can you think of other everyday examples of Popularity & Testimonials? - Celebrity spokespersons and popularity terms such as best-selling or most popular are often introduced in the adverts of cosmetic products and mobile phones.

24. ? ? ! ? ? ! © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 24 Weak Analogies Time spent on sports and study - Athletes train very hard for their successes. If they spend the same amount of effort on their studies, they will get the same rewarding results. Can you think of other everyday examples of Weak Analogies? A Mans car and his girlfriend - We can infer the way a man treats his girlfriend from the way he treats his car.

25. ? ? ! ? ? ! © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 25 Appeals to Tradition Husbands should work and wives should be housewives - According to tradition, husbands are responsible for earning money and wives are responsible for keeping the household. Can you think of other everyday examples of Appeals to Tradition? School should finish early in summer - Schools used to end early in summer because of the hot weather and the lack of air-conditioning in schools. Although most schools are now equipped with air- conditioning, we still feel that schools should end early in the summer.

26. ? ? ! ? ? ! © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 26 Evaluating Causal Claims… Requires - Effort - Time - and Critical Thinking Advantages - Money-saving - Wise Shopping - Self-control