1. Welfare Dynamics in Rural Kenya and Madagascar
Christopher B. Barrett, Paswel Marenya, John McPeak, Bart Minten, Festus Murithi, Willis Oluoch-Kosura, Frank Place, Jean Claude Randrianarisoa, Jhon Rasambainarivo and Justine Wangila
November 15, 2004
USAID BASIS CRSP Policy Conference
Combating Persistent Poverty in Africa
Washington, DC

2. Why is poverty so persistent in rural Africa?
The design of appropriate strategies to combat persistent poverty depend on its origins.
Is poverty something …
… all people naturally grow out of in time (unconditional convergence)? … implies laissez-faire /macro focus.
… some people grow out of in time (conditional convergence)? … implies need for targeted productivity improvements.
… some people can be trapped in perpetually (poverty traps due to multiple equilibria)? … implies need for safety nets and cargo nets.

3. Economic Mobility and Poverty Dynamics
Ultra-Poverty Transition Matrices
As measured against $0.50/day per capita income poverty line
Poor in Subsequent Period
Non-Poor in Subsequent Period
Poor in
Initial Period
Dirib Gombo
100.0%
70.8%
Madzuu
60.7%
Fianarantsoa
82.8%
0.0%
11.2%
20.2%
10.3%
Ng’ambo
86.5%
Vakinankaratra
58.5%
9.0%
7.4%
Non-Poor in Initial Period
11.3%
10.1%
6.9%
6.8%
22.3%
4.5%
11.7%
Kenya rural poverty line ~ $0.53
Madagascar poverty line ~ $0.43
Poverty deepest and most persistent where agroecology and markets least favorable (“remote rural areas” or “less favored lands”)

4. Moving beyond headcount measures
Economic Mobility and Poverty Dynamics
Moving beyond headcount measures
We want to know the directions and magnitudes of welfare change, not just discrete movements relative to an arbitrary poverty line.
Annual average percent change in income, by site and resurveying interval
Key point:
Short panels may exaggerate economic mobility. Much year-on-year change is random. When we look at longer-term transitions, a lot of stasis – look at structural determinants

5. Economic Mobility and Poverty Dynamics
Raw data suggests convergence …
But structural component suggests multiple equilibria
Blue (red) dashed lines are structural (stochastic) component of income change

6. Summary of Findings on Economic Mobility and Poverty Dynamics
Considerable persistence of ultra-poverty with low rates of net exit from poverty
Poverty deepest where agroecology and markets least favorable (“remote rural areas” or “less favored lands”)
Stochastic component of income appears substantial
Structural component consistent w/existence of multiple equilibria
Data consistent with both the conditional convergence and poverty traps hypotheses..

7. Why Economic Immobility?
Explanation 1: Wealth-differentiated risk mgmt
Asset and consumption smoothing
among northern Kenya pastoralists …
Associated with locally increasing
income returns to herd size.
Consumption smoothing a luxury enjoyed by the wealthiest third.

8. Why Economic Immobility?
Explanation 2: Locally increasing returns
Barriers to entry into higher-return activities
- educational attainment and social network rationing (skilled off-farm employment)
- labor and liquidity constraints and SRI
… expected result is nonlinear asset dynamics, with rapid accumulation beyond key thresholds
Marginal return to hh labor supply and rice area, Fianarantsoa

9. Asset Dynamics with Multiple Equilibria
Asset dynamics appear consistent in the Kenya sites with multiple equilibria, but low-level conditional convergence seems to fit the Madagascar sites better.
Herd Dynamics
Northern Kenya Rangelands
Asset Index Dynamics
Highland Kenya/Madagascar

10. Conclusions and Policy Implications
Sound policy design and programming requires a clear idea of the causal mechanism behind persistent poverty.
No support for the unconditional convergence hypothesis.
Conditional convergence apparent at community level in both countries. In Madagascar, the evidence points to geographic poverty traps and the need for exogenous productivity improvements to create path out of poverty.
Qual-quant evidence most consistent with poverty traps hypothesis in rural Kenya. Also need multi-dimensional safety nets to protect assets to block pathways into poverty (due to health shocks, natural disasters, etc.).
Poverty traps seem to exist due to missing financial markets and (i) excessive risk exposure and/or (ii) significant barriers to entry to remunerative livelihoods.

11. Misaotra! Asante! Thank you!