1. Janusz Cofala and Zbigniew Klimont
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Overview of bilateral consultations with Member States and other stakeholders at IIASA

2. Contents Scope and timing of consultations
Model results vs. national emission inventories for 2000
Remaining problems and uncertainties
Conclusions

3. Scope and timing of bilateral consultations
IIASA met with representatives of 22 countries and 6 industrial associations
Meetings took 45 days over a period 25 March – 23 November 2006
127 national and industrial experts participated
Information collected/verified:
National scenarios up to 2020 for energy, transport, agriculture, industrial processes, and VOC sources
Emission factors and other country-specific parameters
“Current legislation” penetration of emission control technologies and potential for further controls
Exchange of information till mid-September 2005

4. SO2 emissions – national assessment vs. GAINS estimate

5. NOx emissions – national assessment vs. GAINS estimate

6. PM emissions – national assessment vs. GAINS estimate

7. Changes in national emission inventories for 2000 - NEC vs
Changes in national emission inventories for NEC vs. earlier assessment

8. Problems and uncertainties (SOx, NOx, PM)
Transport – Veh-km and vehicle numbers often inconsistent with fuel consumption. Projections of vehicle numbers available only for a few countries
Differences in reporting transport emissions – fuel sold vs. fuel used. For NEC fuel sold was taken
Treatment of national shipping not always consistent with guidelines
PM estimates – some countries don’t report PM2.5 and PM10; not all sources included (e.g., agriculture, small industry, cigarette smoking, barbecues, etc.); different emission factors for biomass combustion in households and from agricultural soils

9. Conclusions Important improvement of quality of data for GAINS
National activity scenarios available for (nearly) all EU Member Countries
Much better match of GAINS emissions with national assessment
Uncertainties still exist, further improvement desired but diminishing returns from additional efforts
Data quality sufficient for integrated assessment for the needs of the revision of the NEC Directive