1. 1
Infrastructure-threatening heavy precipitation in the Mediterranean region under climate change conditions
MedCLIVAR
Athens
September 2016
Katrin Nissen and Uwe Ulbrich
Institute of Meteorology
Freie Universität Berlin
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no The contents of this presentation are the author's views. The European Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

2. Heavy Precipitation The RAIN Project
Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks in response to extreme weather
Heavy Precipitation

3. Which thresholds are relevant?
Regulations for drainage systems
Stakeholder inteviews
mm/day
20-30 mm/hour
2, 5,10, 50, 100 year return period
10-year return values
amount intensity

4. Example for impacts High Amounts High Intensities Greece, October 2015
Small-scale convective event
Berlin August 2013
Diario de Mallorca
Greece, October 2015
Andravida:135 mm/ 24 hours
Spain, Mallorca, October 2013
Galilea: 65mm/35min

5. Data Present day: Climate change: E-OBS gridded observational
ERA-Int downscaled by EURO-CORDEX regional models
Climate change:
EURO-CORDEX 0.11° (~12 km)
Scenario RCP 8.5
DRIVING GCM
RCA4
RACMO22E
CCLM4-8-17
HIRHAM5
WRF331F
MPI-ESM
day, 3 hour
day
EC-EARTH
HADGEM2
 day, 3 hour
 day
CM5A-MR
CM5
daily: 13 simulations
3-hourly: 7 simulations

6. Thresholds 10-year return value (present day)
Obs/Reana Multi-model ensemble mean
mm/day mm/3hours
24-hour (high amounts) hour (high intensities)

7. Identification of events
Identification of areas in which the 10-year return value is exceeded
Tracking in time and space
Information on:
Duration
Size
Severity (duration,size and amount)
Example:
August 2002
5 days
km2
Severity 99th percentile
Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug 13
[mm]

8. Climate change signal 8 high amounts high intensities
(1, 2 or 3 day 10-year return value exceeded)
high intensities
(3-hour 10-year return value exceeded)
Difference in number of events between
and RCP8.5 scenario

9. Climate change signal

10. Climate change signal
annual cycle
high amounts
high intensities

11. Climate change signal
size
high amounts
high intensities

12. Conclusions high amounts decrease (summer) increase increase (summer)
(winter)
number of events
increase
size
Iberia Italy Greece East Med
high intensities
increase
(winter)
increase (winter)
increase
(winter)
decrease
(winter)
number of events
increase
increase
increase
increase
size
Iberia Italy Greece East Med
Risk of infrastructure failures due to heavy precipitation is predicted to increase in many Mediterranean regions.
A decrease is found for the Eastern Mediterranean and Africa.

13. Report:
Data:
ab70dbf9-ac4f-40a d38fdccd