1. How Do You Like Your Markets, Wet or Dry?
Wyffels Seed Rep. Meeting
Ames, Iowa
July 16, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
97.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
156.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,950
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
729
Imports 8 28 29
160 30
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,516
11,929
14,709
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,545
4,450
5,150
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,650
4,900
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,400
1,450
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
700
1,250
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,200
12,750
Ending Stocks
1,959
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.95
4.80
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
77.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.6
44.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,015
3,420
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
125
Imports 15 14 16 25
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,209
3,560
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,660
1,695
Seed & Residual
110
130 90 95
120
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,362
1,330
1,450
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,085
3,264
Ending Stocks
295
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.40
10.75
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Crop Rating

5. Soybean Crop Rating

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

10. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Soybean Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soybean Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Corn Grind for Ethanol

16. Ethanol Stocks

17. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

18. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

19. Current Corn Futures
4.93
4.83
4.68
Source: CME Group, 7/16/2013

20. Current Soybean Futures
12.19
11.73
11.22
Source: CME Group, 7/16/2013

21. New Crop Prices

22. Corn Prices vs. Costs

23. Soy Prices vs. Costs

24. Corn Crop Rating

25. Corn Yield Estimate - Crop Conditions

26. 2 Week Outlook - Temps

27. 2 Week Outlook - Precip

28. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Can the new crop beat the summer heat?
Old crop is still short and new crop is not proceeding quickly
But new crop ratings are decent, Eastern vs. Western Corn Belt
Corn demand rebounding? Ethanol has recovered, feed and export have not
2012/13
USDA
2013/14 USDA
2013/14
Futures
(7/16/13)
Corn
$6.95
$4.80
$4.83
Soybeans
$14.40
$10.75
$12.19

29. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: