1. M Messenger, CEC Emerging Energy Efficiency Technologies: Will the new Millenium bring a new wave of energy efficient technologies ? Prepared by b b Michael Messenger b b California Energy Commission b b AP2 Forum on Energy Efficiency b b San Francisco b b May 31, 2000

2. M Messenger, CEC Background on the Energy Efficiency Situation in California b Four major investor owned utilities develop and administer $250 million in programs designed to save electricity and natural gas; State continually updating building standards b Program administrators oversee roughly $10 million in market characterization, assessment and program evaluation work performed by independent consultants b This presentation will discuss factors leading to success for emerging technology, look at past record of forecasting success and provide a list of emerging technologies for the future.

3. The Search For emerging Technologies in California

4. M Messenger, CEC Definition of Emerging Energy efficient Technologies b Less than 2% current market share, potential to reach 20% in 20 years. b Large market where energy savings potential is significant- b Product can be differentiated b Likely to be cost effective and or accepted by installation infrastructure at todays prices over next two decades

5. M Messenger, CEC Factors to consider in selecting future technology winners b How will savings or other benefits be experienced by customers/owners b Delivery channels and infrastructure b Barriers to new product entry b Easy to incorporate in product specs, guidelines or standards b Future energy markets

6. M Messenger, CEC Review of Past Track Record in Forecasting Emerging Techs Review of Past Track Record in Forecasting Emerging Techs b ACEEE/CA study predictions from 1992 b Of 20 high priority ETs in 1992 only 5 have been commercialized or incorporated into codes or standards b Most common failure: energy savings overstated or mkt did not materialize

7. M Messenger, CEC HVAC Emerging T list b Ducts designed into conditioned space b b Indirect-direct evaporative coolers b b Refrigerant Charge indicators for HVAC systems b b Aeroseal for Duct leakage improvements b b Dual source heat pumps b b Cycling controls integrated into billing/metering systems b b Desuperheater or evap cooled condensors

8. M Messenger, CEC Appliances and Home Electronics b High Efficiency Dish Washers b Sleep devices for home theatre and computing systems b Residential distributed generation via photovoltaic or fuel cells

9. M Messenger, CEC Lighting ETs b Electrodeless lamps- radio frequency or sulfur lamps b White LED bulbs- b Low cost, new shape CFLs b Linear T5 lamps

10. M Messenger, CEC LED A19 Bulbs Courtesy: LEDTRONICS Light Output 10 Watt Incandescent Uses 0.7 Watts 100,000 Hours

11. M Messenger, CEC LED Lamps 100,00050Any White LED (2010) 200 White LED (Potential) 100,00020Any White LED (2000) 20,0008030 Standard Flour. 10,0005011 Compact Flour. 1,00015100Incandescent 1,000815Incandescent Lifetime (hrs) Efficiency (lm/W) Power (W) Lamp Type

12. M Messenger, CEC Promising Industrial Emerging Technologies b Amorphous Steel for Motors- b Variable Speed Drives b Membrane Separation Technologies b Supermarket refrigeration optimization

13. M Messenger, CEC Energy Efficiency Services b Commissioning for Residential and Commercial buildings b Integrated building teams for Non residential sector b Building performance contrractors for residential sector- bundling

14. M Messenger, CEC Conclusions b Electronic/information revolution will drive emerging technologies b Biggest sleepers include possibility of either falling electricity prices or much higher prices if greenhouse taxes become a reality b Innovators who start from customer perspective have greatest chances