1. Systems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology
Influence Diagram Modeling of Decision Making in a Dynamic Game Setting
Kai Virtanen, Tuomas Raivio and
Raimo P. Hämäläinen
Systems Analysis Laboratory
Helsinki University of Technology

2. Maneuvering decisions in one-on-one air combat game
t=Dt
Decision maker (DM)
t=Dt
t=0
t=0
Adversary (AD)
Find the best maneuvering sequence for the DM
with respect to the goals
1. Avoid being captured by the AD
2. Capture the AD
by taking into account
- Preferences of a pilot
- Uncertainties
- Dynamic decision environment
- Behavior of the AD
Influence diagrams (IDs) representing
the control decision of the DM:
Single stage ID (Virtanen et al. 1999),
pilot’s short-term decision making
Multistage ID (Virtanen et al. 2001),
preference optimal flight paths against given trajectories
a nonlinear programming -based solution approach

3. ID for a single control decision
Adversary's
Present
State
Adversary's
Maneuver
Adversary’s
State
Measurement
Present
Combat State
Present
Measurement
Combat
State
Situation
Evaluation
Present
State
Maneuver
State
Present
Threat Situation
Assessment
Threat Situation
Assessment
Evolution of the players’ states described by a set of differential equations
Solution: The control leading to the highest expected utility
The behavior of the AD ?

4. ID game for a single control decision
DM’s belief about
AD’s viewpoint
Solution:
- Discrete controls Þ
Matrix game
- Continuous controls Þ
Nonlinear programming
The best control of the DM against
the worst possible action of the AD
Utilization:
Air combat simulators
Future research:
Multistage ID game
Implies
information
structure
Combat state
DM's
viewpoint