1. Representative sampling
TÓTH Gábor
DG EMPL - Impact Assessment and Evaluation Unit
ESF Evaluation Partnership meeting, Brussels, March, 2015

2. Previous steps Draft guidance on representative sampling
Learning seminar in June
Section in main guidance in July
Suggestion for modified guidance in November
Follow up with PL

3. Structure of the session
Existing guidance – ESF Data Support Centre
Simulation – Polish representative
New guidance - COM

4. Relative standard error: 2%
Simulation by PL
Relative standard error: 2%
Standard error: 2%
Standard error: 5%
Total reference population size
395,711
Sample size
142,485
7,822
1,386
Cost of the survey (4.5€/interview)
€641,183
€35,199
€6,237
Total cost
€661,883
€55,899
€26,937

5. New guidance
Calculation method: standard error instead of relative standard error
Confidence level: 95%
Precision thresholds
0-2%: High precision – very reliable
2-5%: Acceptable - reliable
5-10%: Low precision – not sufficiently reliable
More than 10%: Very low precision – not reliable