1. 2012 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation
July 27, 2012
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
96.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
146.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,358
12,970
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
903
Imports 14 8 28 22 30
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,508
13,903
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,793
4,550
4,800
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,021
5,050
4,900
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,405
1,420
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,600
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,605
12,720
Ending Stocks
1,183
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.20
5.90
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
76.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.5
40.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,056
3,050
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
170
Imports 13 15 14
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,286
3,235
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,675
1,610
Seed & Residual
106
110
130
101
124
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,340
1,370
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,116
3,105
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.40
14.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
63.2
59.2
53.6
54.4
56.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.9
44.5
46.3
43.7
45.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,499
2,218
2,207
1,999
2,224
Beg. Stocks
306
657
976
862
743
Imports
127
119 97
115
120
Total Supply
2,932
2,993
3,279
2,977
3,087
Food
927
919
926
940
950
Seed 78 69 71 77 73
Feed & Residual
255
150
132
169
200
Exports
1,015
879
1,289
1,048
1,200
Total Use
2,275
2,018
2,417
2,234
2,423
Ending Stocks
664
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.78
4.87
5.70
7.24
6.80
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. Prices

6. Crop Conditions
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Projection from Corn Conditions

8. Projection from Soy Conditions

9. Source: NOAA-CPC

10. Winter Wheat Harvest
Source: USDA-NASS

11. Spring Wheat Harvest & Condition
Source: USDA-NASS

12. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. World Wheat Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14

15. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

16. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

17. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 17 17

18. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Corn Grind for Ethanol
Source: DOE-EIA

22. Ethanol Stocks
Source: DOE-EIA

23. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

24. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

25. 2011 Season-Average Wheat Price

26. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

27. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

28. Projected ‘12 Season-Average Wheat Price

29. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
The drought has had a major impact already.
Without timely rains, additional damage will be done.
Biofuel growth has stalled with higher feedstock prices and lower energy demand.
2011/12
USDA
Futures
(7/23/12)
2012/13
Corn
$6.20
$6.30
$5.90
$7.28
Soybeans
$12.40
$12.52
$14.00
$14.66
Wheat
$7.24
$6.80
$7.98

30. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: