1. Apportioning climate change indicators to regional emitters
Jason Lowe
September 2002

2. Estimating regional share
EMISSIONS FROM EACH COUNTRY/REGION
RADIATIVE FORCING FOR EACH COUNTRY
TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR EACH COUNTRY
SHARE
CONCENTRATIONS FROM EACH COUNTRY/REGION

3. Results – Phase 1 Unless otherwise stated, results use EDGAR-HYDE 1.4
gas emissions.

4. CDIAC – Basic model (no feedback)
Temperature
CO2 Conc
CH4 Conc
N2O Conc

5. CDIAC – Extended model (feedback)

6. CDIAC – Basic model (no feedback) Short CH4 and N2O lifetimes

7. EDGAR/HYDE – Basic model

8. EDGAR/HYDE – Extended model

9. Can we simulate B1 CO2 concentrations using a simple model
Can we simulate B1 CO2 concentrations using a simple model? Input to HadCM3 is used as a comparison
HadCM3 CO2 concentrations derived from Bern carbon cycle model.
Pre-1990 values agree well with observations

10. Can we simulate A1FI CO2 concentrations using a simple model
Can we simulate A1FI CO2 concentrations using a simple model? Input to HadCM3 is used as a comparison

11. Can we simulate temperature rise using a simple model
Can we simulate temperature rise using a simple model? HadCM3 simulation is used as a comparison

12. Results – Phase 2
Unless otherwise stated, results use marginal approach.

13. Regional share of CO2 emissions

14. Regional share of cumulative CO2 emissions

15. Regional share of CO2 concentrations

16. Regional share of GHG forcing

17. Global temperature rise from regional emissions

18. Regional share of temperature rise

19. Share of the temperature rise to 2100

20. Regional share of temperature rise annex 1 and non-annex 1

21. Regional share of temperature rise Only using emissions after 1950

22. Regional share of temperature rise Only emissions after 1990

23. Are the results different for other scenarios?
A1FI B1 A2

24. Does feedback affect the apportionment calculation?
No temperature feedback
Temperature feedback

25. Does the amount of carbon cycle fertilization affect the result?
Bern low case
Bern high case

26. Does a slower climate response (only long time constant) affect the result?
Slow climate model
response

27. Comparing attribution methods
Marginal
All minus one