1. A Demonstration of Why Trade Is Critical to the Production of Wealth
Evolution of Economic Theory:
Traditional idea: Mercantilism (protectionism) believed best policy; still most popular
Adam Smith (1776) explained the value of
1) the division of labor and
2) specialization of labor

2. Adam Smith and the Pin Factory

3. Evolution of Thinking Smith’s Pin Factory:
One man can make one bad pin a day
10 men could make 48,000 pins a day
18 steps in production that exploits economies of scale
What prevents the world from being covered in pins? The extent of the market.
This helps explain some features of wealth creation, but there is more.

4. A Completely Original Concept
David Ricardo (1817):
Comparative Advantage
The great economist, Paul Samuelson, was asked by one of the greatest mathematicians to name a concept in social science that was both true and nontrivial. The answer: Comparative Advantage
“Thousands of intelligent men … have never been able to grasp the doctrine … or to believe it after it was explained to them.”

5. Most Americans Cannot Comprehend It
2007 poll of Democrat voters:
By margin: they agree that “free trade agreements have been a bad deal for the U.S.”
2007 poll of Republican voters:
By margin: they agree that “free trade is a bad idea.”
2007 poll of all voters:
60% nationwide agreed with the statement that “foreign trade has been bad for the U.S. economy.”

6. The first modern novel in English based on a true story (like this lecture):

7. A Side Note: What was he doing there?

8. The Island Today

9. No Man Is an Island Crusoe stranded on island for several years.
Presume Crusoe spends his
time making breadfruit bread (BB)
loaves and cups of coconut milk
(CM). He has ability to produce
these as seen on the production
possibility curve.
Maybe he eats a balanced diet
of 25 CM and 5 BB a week. BB
Crusoe’s weekly
Production
Possibility 10 5 CM 25 50

10. Crusoe Meets Competent Friday
Friday, living on other side of island, same resources, also makes BB and CM, but is more productive. Why? Both work hard every day.
Friday also produces
BB and CM. He eats a
balanced diet of 45 CM
and 15 BB loaves.
Then the two meet. BB
Friday’s weekly
Production
Possibility 30 15 CM 45 90

11. Friday Is Better at Making Both
Crusoe and Friday notice differences in how much of both goods they can produce each week. Friday is better at making both – an absolute advantage.
BB CM Ratio Note: these ratios are
Crusoe / personal opportunity
Friday / costs.
But: Who is the low cost producer of which good, compared to the other? Who has comparative advantage?

12. Poor Crusoe Trades with Rich Friday
Noticing differences in costs of producing CM and BB, let us presume they agree to trade 5 BB for 20 CM at the end of the week. So Friday must make 5 more BB; Crusoe must make 20 more CM.
Assume this term of trade: 1 BB for 4 CM (5 BB for 20 CM)
Who is the winner of this trade?

13. Trade Creates Wealth Exchange occurs:
Crusoe has 6 BB and 25 CM Friday has 15 BB and 50 CM BB BB
Crusoe
Friday 6 5 20 15 1 CM CM 25 45 50

14. Trade Exploits Comparative Advantage
The process of voluntary trade makes both parties richer.
No more effort was required – just specialization in the thing one is relatively better at doing compared to the trading partner. The less able, Crusoe, has something to offer the more able, Friday.
Adding thousands of goods and millions of people complicates the math but not the outcome.
Trade creates wealth. There are no exceptions to this. Trade also requires social cooperation.

15. Trade Among Nations
Assume companies in Japan and in Mexico make shirts and cars for their consumers.
Current production abilities are up to 5 million shirts per week in Mexico and up to 50,000 cars per week — given current resources in labor and capital.
Current production abilities are up to 4 million shirts per week in Japan and up to 100,000 cars per week — given current resources in labor and capital.

16. Creating New Wealth
To have more cars, resources must be taken from shirt production — opportunity cost.
Resources are scarce. We cannot have everything. One person or one nation cannot be best at making everything. We trade goods for goods based at what we are best at doing. Specialization and division of labor follows.

17. Mexican Shirts = Japanese Cars

18. Production Possibility: Mexico
Car and shirt production without trade
cars
Current production — based on
internal costs in Mexico and demands
of consumers — results in 25,000 cars
per week and 2.5 million shirts being
produced and bought by consumers in
Mexico each week. Domestic prices are
not relevant for trade with foreigners, what
matters are relative costs — 100 shirts for
1 car is the internal rate of trade.
50k
25k
shirts o
2.5m 5m

19. Production Possibility: Japan
Cars and shirt production without trade
cars
Current production — based on
internal prices and demand in
Japan — results in 50,000 cars
and 2 million shirts per week being
produced and bought in Japan. The
internal rate of trade is 40 shirts for
one car within Japan.
What do Japan and Mexico have
to offer each other?
100k
50k
shirts 2m 4m

20. Gains from Trade: Comparative Advantage
Internal rate of exchange in Mexico is 100/1 shirts for cars.
Internal rate of exchange in Japan is 40/1 shirts for cars.
Comparing these two producers:
Who is the lower cost producer of cars?
Who is the lower cost producer of shirts?
Trade will occur somewhere between 100/1 and 40/1. Bargaining. Let us assume 60/1.

21. Trade: Both Become Wealthier
Mexico Japan
New point of
production
cars
cars
New point
of production
100k
50k
50k
shirts
shirts 3m 4m 2m 5m
Mexico specializes in shirts — makes 5 million, sells 3 million to Japan.
Japan specializes in cars — makes 100,000, sells 50,000 to Mexico for
3 million shirts. Both end up beyond their own production possibilities —
trade allows people in both nations to have more of what they want.

22. Out with the Old

23. In with the New

24. Name This Piece of Land

25. Tale of Two Nations South Korea North Korea
$24,094 per capita $1,007 per capita
Market oriented Juche Stalinist

26. Is There a Problem? Japan and Mexico both are wealthier due to trade.
Citizens in both nations get more of what they want at lower cost.
Note: Trade is done by Yen and Peso, but that is just for convenience — people want cars and shirts — not money.
Expand this to 100 nations and 10,000 goods. The math is more complicated, but same wealth creation results.
So why is there opposition to free trade?
What about new technology?