1. Beyond 2011
Administrative data sources and low-level aggregate models for producing population estimates

2. Overview Options using administrative data sources
Description of administrative data sources
Comparison of population estimates
Aggregate administrative data based models

3. List of statistical options
Administrative data-based options
Aggregate model
Record Level model
Intermediate model
Census options
Traditional census – long form to everyone
Short-form/Long form census
Rolling census
Short form census and continuous survey
Survey options
Address register + survey
Continuous survey

4. List of statistical options
Administrative data-based options
Aggregate model
Record Level model
Intermediate model
Census options
Traditional census – long form to everyone
Short-form/Long form census
Rolling census
Short form census and continuous survey
Survey options
Address register + survey
Continuous survey

5. Administrative Sources
Broad Coverage Sources
- Patient Register Database (PRD)
- Customer Information System (CIS)
Sources covering sub-populations
- School Census
- Higher Education Statistics Authority (HESA) Student Data
- Migrant Worker Scan (MWS)

6. Aggregate Model Initial population estimates
e.g. weighted ‘average’ of sources stratified by
- age
- sex
- geography
Coverage assessment e.g survey

7. Record Level model
Link admin sources to produce initial population estimates
Coverage assessment e.g. survey
Estimation to produce weights
Revised population estimates

8. Intermediate model Initial population estimates – aggregate model
Match and link in coverage check survey areas
- coverage survey
- admin sources
- address register
Estimation to produce weights
Adjusted population estimates

9. Comparison of estimates
Population estimates generated from counts of individuals on broad coverage administrative sources
These estimates compared with each other and ONS Mid Year Population Estimates
National difference in total population between administrative sources ~1%

10. Percentage difference of total population of broad coverage sources from mid-year estimates

11. Percentage difference by age group in university towns and cities
CIS
Males
Females
Patient Register

12. Low level aggregate models
Basic model
Basic model plus weighting
Basic model plus coverage survey
Statistical model based approaches
Hybrid approach

13. Challenges Reliance on administrative data
Variations in definitions and coverage
Future-proofing
Provision of socio-demographic data
Measuring the accuracy of the estimates