1. Algorithm Option A
DESC 1/8/2012

2. Option A Data used: Sample daily consumption
Total LDZ consumption taken from Nationalgrid website as DM and NDM
Sample AQ by EUC
Total AQ – Assumptions made

3. Total AQ Only data available from Mod 81 reports
Assumed that AQ held consistent from 1st October to 30th September
Some inaccuracy in AQ assumptions – tried second run using an AQ scaling to assess sensitivity and it does make a significant difference

4. Results R Squared Split AQ 99.3% Scaled AQ 99.4% MAPE Split AQ 5.3%

5. Scaling Factor Vs Adjustment Factor

6. Next Steps Extend to other LDZ and years Firm up on AQ information
Assess by site results to Smart data
Questions:
Would we expect Adjustment factor to be similar to SF?
Should we assess sample adequacy?