1. Estimating as a Way of Improving and Completing Administrative Data
Workshop on
“THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A MORE EFFICIENT WAY OF COLLECTING DATA”
Thorsten Tümmler, Federal Statistical Office of Germany

2. Outline Average of persons employed Active persons
Company turnover for VAT groups

3. Average of persons employed
Current BR data
employees liable for social insurance as of 31st of December
Administrative data
employees liable for social insurance at the end of each month
Linkage BR – administrative data
Compute average of persons employed per year

4. Active persons Current BR data Administrative data
employees liable for social insurance as of 31st of December
Administrative data
Marginal part-time workers
Estimation of number of active persons
Number of employees liable for social insurance + number of marginal part-time workers + number of working proprietors
Number of working proprietors depending on legal form
Corporation  0
Sole proprietor  1
Partnership, others  2

5. VAT-groups in the BR (1) Administrative data Problems in the BR
Turnover of whole group recorded at controlling company
No data for subsidiary companies
Problems in the BR
Link controlling company – subsidiaries
No turnover for subsidiaries
Too much turnover for controlling company
Consequences
Analysis
Support for surveys

6. VAT-groups in the BR (2) Importance of VAT-groups number employees
turnover 3%
32%
43%

7. The estimation procedure – step 1
Use of turnover from surveys
Assumption: turnover from surveys is best substitute
Turnover from surveys for the same, the previous or the following year
Turnover from surveys available for
32% of all companies belonging to VAT-groups
64% of all companies with 50 or more employees

8. The estimation procedure – step 2 (1)
Estimation of unknown turnover
Objective: Generation of turnover at market conditions including interior turnover
Multiple logarithmic OLS-regression using data of companies not belonging to VAT-groups
Number of employees
Number of local units of the enterprise
Legal form
Economic activity
Location of the enterprise

9. The estimation procedure – step 2 (2)
Multiple logarithmic OLS-regression model
ln(Y) =  + 1 * ln(X1) + 2 * ln(X2) + 3 * ln(X3) + 4 * X4 + … + 
ln(Y) = logarithmised turnover
ln(X1) = logarithmised number of employees
ln(X2) = logarithmised number of marginal employees
ln(X3) = logarithmised number of local units
X4, X5, … = dummies
Separate regression for (almost) each NACE division

10. The estimation procedure – step 3
Adjusting turnover of VAT-group to tax data
Proportional capping if estimated turnover of VAT-group
… exceeds taxable turnover by times
Proportional adding if estimated turnover of VAT-group
… falls short of taxable turnover
No adjustment for turnover from surveys

11. The estimation procedure – step 4
Checking of selected individual results
Selection depending on weight for analysis by
NACE division and federal state
branch of industry and county
Checking of about 300 single estimated data
Checking in practice difficult since data for comparing not available

12. Results (1) Increase of overall turnover by 3% number employees
32%
46%

13. Results (2) Redistribution of turnover Manufacturing (D) Trade (G)
Business services (K)
Others

14. Thank you for your attention!
Thorsten Tümmler
Federal Statistical Office
phone: /