1. The Malthusian Moment? And if there is one, and my dear colleague will argue that it is upon us …solutions?
should we eat our parents?
or our children?
or our pets?

2. The ‘conventional wisdom’ and ‘popular political’ agenda…
The former, we decided earlier, was often oppressive / anti-progressive in the time of Galileo. It opposed to the heliocentric model and Darwin’s notion of evolution
SOME now tell that we are running out of resources; that global warming will bring down civilization; others assure us that neither will not happen. Each side claims that its perspective is based on ‘scientific fact’!
But can we trust conventional wisdom? Cultural truth? Can we make unbiased observations? And can we behave rationally even when we believe we have gained some insight?

3. All the evidence suggests that when we consume…
the world is a better place to live; editorials even in todays NYT inform us that if there is no growth in China civilization as we know it is doomed,
We [some] become more humane, more philanthropic, more altruistic. See E values on moral improvement
We [ok, some] become more environmentally conscious,
and, yet, experience indicates also that we are still capable of irrational and self-serving and self-destructive behavior.

4. Gross Domestic Product

5. High-income countries with their own energy sources have the highest energy use per capita.
Energy use per capita, in thousands of kilograms of oil equivalent, 2002
Source: World Bank, 2005 World Development Indicators: table 3.7.

6. Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide
Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population
Natural Increase
Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s.
Nevertheless, if death rates are lower than birth rates, populations will still grow.
Also, it is possible for absolute numbers of births to increase even when birth rates decline.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

7. Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide
Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world.
Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. Moreover, women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s.
What happens when the lines ‘birth rate’ and ‘death rate’ cross? As it has alreeady in Italy and will shortly in China.
That is, who will pay for retirement (with a ‘pay as you go system’)? And this is already happening in many European countries.
All the evidence suggests that prosperity brings about a change in fertility rates. There is then no Malthusian moment looming.

8. Reaching Replacement Fertility
Average number of children per woman
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

9. Trends in Fertility Reduction
Average number of children per woman
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

10. Growth in More, Less Developed Countries
Billions
Less Developed Regions
More Developed Regions
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

11. The lessons…
Compare the demographic graph to the consumption graph. What conclusions are possible?
those who live better and consume more also manage their population growth more successfully.
Those who do not have the wherewithal to consume, want to consume. That is, no one wants to go back to the “dark ages”.

12. Consider what is driving this movement?

13. The vehicle for this transformation
Science = sustained self conscious reflection in a public context about nature and society, and how sci and culture can work together in a complementary way.
Science applied [technology, engineering] during and since the industrial revolution...
great benefits: rising quality of life and responsive and constitutional political order, pharmaceuticals, sanitation but also produced great liabilities; pollution, Nazi and Leninist ideologies, etc.
How are the benefits to be paid for? Growth? Consumption?

14. Liabilities of Industrial Revolutions and Capitalism tempered by:
Judeo-Christian ethics (humans “made in the image of God”)
Enlightenment values (“all men are created equal…”); popular sovereignty, liberty, protection of life and property
Note that most contemporary governments, no matter how ‘free’ or ‘authoritarian’ claim to be ‘democratic’, ‘popular’ and ‘republics’ [e.g., the’ Democratic Peoples Republic of North Korea’ or the’ German Democratic Republic’
Evidence: end of slavery in the 19th Cent, dramatic rise in standards of living, public health and sanitation, all in systems based on constitutional / consensual government.

15. Solutions? To the problem of consumption
Authoritarian government should distribute resources as best benefits the collective, assume an enlightened government, or
application of scientific principles / methods; that is reflection on the problem and assessment of the options; followed by education and persuasion to generate consensus). The ‘enlightened’ scientific elite?
Note the case of Greece: democratic government, but one in which the politicians insured re-election for themselves and their families by raising the social safety network to an unsustainable level, and doing quite well for themselves besides.