1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook
Mar. 27, 2019
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

3. Soybean Meal Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

4. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

5. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

7. Global Shares
Source: USDA

9. Arable land

10. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Corn Grind for Ethanol

14. Ethanol Stocks
Source: EIA

15. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.0
94.0
90.2
89.1
92.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
168.4
174.6
176.6
176.4
176.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,602
15,148
14,609
14,420
14,890
Beg. Stocks
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,140
1,835
Imports 67 57 36 40
Total Supply
15,401
16,942
16,939
16,600
16,765
Feed & Residual
5,120
5,470
5,304
5,375
5,500
Ethanol
5,224
5,432
5,605
5,550
5,575
Food, Seed, & Other
1,422
1,453
1,451
1,465
Exports
1,898
2,294
2,438
2,375
2,475
Total Use
13,664
14,649
14,799
14,765
15,015
Ending Stocks
1,750
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.61
3.36
3.55
3.65
Source: USDA-WAOB, adjustments for March report 15 15

16. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
82.7
83.4
90.2
89.2
85.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
48.0
52.0
49.3
51.6
49.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,926
4,296
4,412
4,544
4,175
Beg. Stocks
191
197
302
438
900
Imports 24 22 20
Total Supply
4,140
4,515
4,735
5,002
5,095
Crush
1,886
1,901
2,055
2,100
2,105
Seed & Residual
122
146
113
127
130
Exports
1,936
2,166
2,129
1,875
2,025
Total Use
3,944
4,214
4,297
4,102
4,260
Ending Stocks
835
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
8.95
9.47
9.33
8.60
8.80
Source: USDA-WAOB, adjustments for March report 16 16

17. Weather Outlook
Source: NOAA-CPC 17 17

18. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 18 18

19. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 19 19

20. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 20 20

21. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 21 21

22. Current Corn Futures
3.96
3.56
Source: CME Group, 3/26/2019

23. Current Soybean Futures
9.21
8.64
Source: CME Group, 3/26/2019

24. 2018/19 Crop Margins
Based on futures prices

25. 2019/20 Crop Margins
Based on futures prices

26. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

27. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

28. Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

29. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: