1. Integrating water scenarios within EEA's outlook activities
Stéphane Isoard
Project manager, Prospective analysis coordination
30 June 2003
International Workshop: “European Water Scenarios: from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Asia, State of the art and perspectives”
Brussels, 30th June - 1st July 2003, EC (DG RTD-Dir I-Div 03)

2. EEA’s outlook activities
Outlooks are important to support policy makers as they link past trends and possible/projected future developments.
Objectives of the EEA prospective analysis across sectors and themes :
according to the 2005 State of the Environment and Outlook report (SoEOR2005) requirements
which are relevant to decision-makers (vis-à-vis 6EAP, SDS and environment sector integration, enlargement), e.g. showing distance to politically agreed targets (with existing policies and measures)
which provide early warnings if necessary of environmental impacts (compared with “sustainable” targets)
which show potential alternative pathways and strategies on what might be expected from the future.
enhance the development of a long-term systematic approach to prospective analysis in the EIONET network (European Environment Information and Observation Network) so as to make sure they are incorporated in EEA regular reporting.

3. EEA’s outlook activities (cont.)
Both quantitative and qualitative outlooks are developed:
Quantitative outlooks whenever models are available and appropriate: baseline projections + policy options scenarios + long-term explorative scenarios
Qualitative storylines
In the context of the SoEOR2005 report, outlooks are developed for the following sectors and themes:
air and climate change (energy, transport, agriculture, etc.)
waste and material flows
water
terrestrial environment and land use development
nature protection and biodiversity.
Geographical coverage: EEA member countries (31).
Temporal coverage: up to (policy relevant); explorative approaches up to 2050/2100 (for environment impacts).

4. Water scenarios within EEA's outlook activities
Key research needs to enhance the policy relevance of water scenarios:
Framework for the development of IEA water storylines and scenarios.
Development of baseline projections as well as alternative scenarios, including possible policy options.
Assessment of technological change/progress
Integrated assessment of water issues, e.g. assessment of climate change impacts or CAP reform on water use and availability.
Higher resolution of modelling specifications and results.
Key issues to be covered by water scenarios:
Eutrophication
Hazardous substances
Water quantity
Fisheries and aquaculture

5. Water scenarios within EEA's outlook activities (cont.)
Ongoing and forthcoming EEA’s water scenarios activities:
Framework for the development of IEA water storylines and scenarios, and in-depth analysis of water use driving forces (EEA/European Topic Centre on Water)
Scenarios for eutrophication, focussing on phosphorous and waste water treatment (EEA/European Topic Centre on Water)
EEA’s intention is to call for an external consultant for undertaking projections on water use for the next 20 to 30 years: analysis of the key driving forces, development of a baseline projection, policy options and assessment of climate change impacts.

6. Water scenarios within EEA's outlook activities (cont.)