1. Air Pollution Climate Change Interactions
Frank Raes et al. Joint Research Centre, MPI Hamburrg
GCM (ECHAM) and CTM (TM5) based scenario modelling of the effects of future
Air Pollution (AP) and Climate Change (CC) policies
BAU CC
policies
only AP
AP+CC
Radiative Forcing 2030 min (1)
T 2030 – T2000= ~ 1.1°C
(2.18 oC)
B2, IIASA MFR AP
policies
only
Temperature 2030 min (2)
whatever we do, climate might not benefit
until after 2030 (and possibly 2050)
●WG1 must check the robustness of such results by making a critical review of
coupled Climate – Air Pollution models
●New IPCC scenarios must pay attention to future AP emission control policies
(1) Van Aardenne et al .(2009) in preparation
(2) Kloster et al. ACP (2008,) Kloster et al. Clim Dyn (2009 in review)