1. 2012 Crop Market Outlook Women in Ag Marketing Meeting
Iowa Falls, Iowa
Apr. 4, 2012
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
94.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
164.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,358
14,270
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
801
Imports 14 8 28 20 15
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,506
15,086
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,793
4,600
5,200
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,021
5,000
4,950
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,405
1,420
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,700
1,900
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,705
13,470
Ending Stocks
1,616
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.20
5.00
95.9
14,558 ? ? ? ? ? ?
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.5
43.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,056
3,250
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
275
Imports 13 15 14
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,286
3,540
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,615
1,660
Seed & Residual
106
110
130
120
126
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,275
1,550
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,011
3,335
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.00
11.50
73.9
3,202 ? ? ? ?
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 3 3

4. Corn Intentions
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soybean Intentions
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Intentions vs. Plantings
Source: USDA-NASS

8. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. Corn vs. Wheat
Source: CME Group, 4/2/2012

11. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

12. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

13. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Change of Export Pace

16. Corn Grind for Ethanol
Source: DOE-EIA

17. Ethanol Stocks
Source: DOE-EIA

18. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal.
7.4 bil. gal.
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

19. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price
Cost

20. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price
Cost

21. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price
Cost

22. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price
Cost

23. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

24. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

25. Iowa Crop Margins

26. 2012 Crop Prices

27. Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center

28. 3 Month Precipitation Outlook
Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center

29. Current Corn Futures
6.01
5.31
5.26
5.13
Source: CME Group, 4/2/2012

30. Current Soybean Futures
13.18
12.36
12.14
11.86
Source: CME Group, 4/2/2012

31. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
US job recovery, European financial concerns
Supply/demand concerns
Worries about dry conditions in South America and in U.S.
Biofuel growth and energy demand
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
Nearly 96 million acres of corn might do the trick
Roughly 74 million acres of soybeans might not
2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.20; Soy $12.00
Futures (as of 4/2/12): Corn $6.01; Soy $12.36
2012/13:
Futures (as of 4/2/12): Corn $5.31; Soy $13.18

32. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: