1. Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
Forschungsbereich II:
Klimawirkung und Vulnerabilität

2. Estimate of the Earth’s annual and global mean energy balance
Estimate of the Earth’s annual and global mean energy balance. Over the long term, the amount of incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth and atmosphere is balanced by the Earth and atmosphere releasing the same amount of outgoing longwave radiation. About half of the incoming solar radiation is absorbed by the Earth’s surface. This energy is transferred to the atmosphere by warming the air in contact with the surface (thermals), by evapotranspiration and by longwave radiation that is absorbed by clouds and greenhouse gases. The atmosphere in turn radiates longwave energy back to Earth as well as out to space. Source: Kiehl and Trenberth (1997).
Kiehl, J., and K. Trenberth, 1997: Earth’s annual global mean energy budget. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 197–206.

3. Köppen Klimaklassifikation

4. Globale Mitteltemperatur
Annual anomalies of global land-surface air temperature (°C), 1850 to 2005, relative to the
1961 to 1990 mean for CRUTEM3 updated from Brohan et al. (2006). The smooth curves show decadal
variations (see Appendix 3.A). The black curve from CRUTEM3 is compared with those from NCDC (Smith
and Reynolds, 2005; blue), GISS (Hansen et al., 2001; red) and Lugina et al. (2005; green).
Annual anomalies of global land-surface air temperature (°C), 1850 to 2005, relative to the
1961 to 1990 mean for CRUTEM3 updated from Brohan et al. (2006). The smooth curves show decadal
variations (see Appendix 3.A). The black curve from CRUTEM3 is compared with those from NCDC (Smith
and Reynolds, 2005; blue), GISS (Hansen et al., 2001; red) and Lugina et al. (2005; green).

5. Annual averages of the global mean sea level (mm)
Annual averages of the global mean sea level (mm). The red curve shows reconstructed
sea level fields since 1870 (updated from Church and White, 2006); the blue curve shows coastal tide
gauge measurements since 1950 (from Holgate and Woodworth, 2004) and the black curve is based
on satellite altimetry (Leuliette et al., 2004). The red and blue curves are deviations from their averages
for 1961 to 1990, and the black curve is the deviation from the average of the red curve for the period
1993 to Error bars show 90% confidence intervals.
Annual averages of the global mean sea level (mm). The red curve shows reconstructed
sea level fields since 1870 (updated from Church and White, 2006); the blue curve shows coastal tide
gauge measurements since 1950 (from Holgate and Woodworth, 2004) and the black curve is based
on satellite altimetry (Leuliette et al., 2004). The red and blue curves are deviations from their averages
for 1961 to 1990, and the black curve is the deviation from the average of the red curve for the period
1993 to Error bars show 90% confidence intervals.

6. Trends der jährlichen Durchschnittstemeratur
Linear trend of annual temperatures for 1901 to 2005 (left; °C per century) and 1979 to 2005 (right; °C per decade). Areas in grey have insufficient data to produce
reliable trends. The minimum number of years needed to calculate a trend value is 66 years for 1901 to 2005 and 18 years for 1979 to An annual value is available
if there are 10 valid monthly temperature anomaly values. The data set used was produced by NCDC from Smith and Reynolds (2005). Trends significant at the 5% level are
indicated by white + marks.
IPCC, AR4, nach Smith and Reynolds (2005), NCDC. +: Siginfikanzlevel 5%, grau: Daten ungenügend

7. Trends im Jahresniederschlag
Trend of annual land precipitation amounts for 1901 to 2005 (top, % per century)
and 1979 to 2005 (bottom, % per decade), using the GHCN precipitation data set from NCDC. The
percentage is based on the means for the 1961 to 1990 period. Areas in grey have insufficient
data to produce reliable trends. The minimum number of years required to calculate a trend value
is 66 for 1901 to 2005 and 18 for 1979 to An annual value is complete for a given year if
all 12 monthly percentage anomaly values are present. Note the different colour bars and units in
each plot. Trends significant at the 5% level are indicated by black + marks.
IPCC, AR4, nach GHCN precipitation data set from NCDC. +: Siginfikanzlevel 5%, grau: Daten ungenügend

8. Im AR4 benutzte AOGCMs

9. Entwicklung der Auflösung seit 1990

10. Observed climatological annual mean SST and, over land, surface
air temperature (labelled contours) and the multi-model mean error in these
temperatures, simulated minus observed (colour-shaded contours).
Observed climatological annual mean SST and, over land, surface
air temperature (labelled contours) and the multi-model mean error in these
temperatures, simulated minus observed (colour-shaded contours).

11. Annual mean precipitation (cm), observed (a) and simulated (b), based on the multimodel mean. The Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP; Xie and Arkin, 1997) observation-based climatology for 1980 to 1999 is shown, and the model results are for
the same period in the 20th-century simulations in the MMD at PCMDI. In (a), observations were ot available for the grey regions.
Annual mean precipitation (cm), observed (a) and simulated (b), based on the multimodel
mean. The Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP; Xie and Arkin,
1997) observation-based climatology for 1980 to 1999 is shown, and the model results are for
the same period in the 20th-century simulations in the MMD at PCMDI. In (a), observations were
not available for the grey regions. Results for individual models can be seen in Supplementary
Material, Figure S8.9.

12. Attributierung

13. Szenarien der THG-Emissionen/des Strahungsantreibs
Projected radiative forcing (W ^m-2) over the 21st century from the SRES and RCP scenarios. Draft Figure 1-4 from IPCC AR5 WGII, Chapter 1. - See more at:

14. Solid lines are multi-model global averages of surface warming (relative to ) for the scenarios
A2, A1B and B1, shown as continuations of the 20th century simulations. Shading denotes the plus/minus one standard
deviation range of individual model annual averages. The orange line is for the experiment where concentrations were
held constant at year 2000 values. The gray bars at right indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the
likely range assessed for the six SRES marker scenarios. The assessment of the best estimate and likely ranges in the gray
bars includes the AOGCMs in the left part of the figure, as well as results from a hierarchy of independent models and
observational constraints. {Figures 10.4 and 10.29}

15. Projected surface temperature changes for the early and late 21st century relative to the period 1980–
1999. The central and right panels show the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation multi-Model average projections for
the B1 (top), A1B (middle) and A2 (bottom) SRES scenarios averaged over decades 2020–2029 (center) and 2090–2099
(right). The left panel shows corresponding uncertainties as the relative probabilities of estimated global average warming
from several different AOGCM and EMICs studies for the same periods. Some studies present results only for a subset of
the SRES scenarios, or for various model versions. Therefore the difference in the number of curves, shown in the lefthand
panels, is due only to differences in the availability of results. {Figures 10.8 and 10.28}

16. Niederschlag DJF unter A1B
Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999. Values are multi-model
averages based on the SRES A1B scenario for December to February (left) and June to August (right). White areas are where less than
66% of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the
change. {Figure 10.9}
Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999. Values are multi-model
averages based on the SRES A1B scenario for December to February. White areas are where less than 66% of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change

17. Niederschlag JJA unter A1B
Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999. Values are multi-model
averages based on the SRES A1B scenario for December to February (left) and June to August (right). White areas are where less than
66% of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the
change. {Figure 10.9}

18. Changes in extremes based on multi-model simulations from nine global coupled climate models, adapted from Tebaldi et al. (2006). (a) Globally averaged
changes in precipitation intensity (defined as the annual total precipitation divided by the number of wet days) for a low (SRES B1), middle (SRES A1B) and high (SRES A2)
scenario. (b) Changes in spatial patterns of simulated precipitation intensity between two 20-year means (2080–2099 minus 1980–1999) for the A1B scenario.

19. Changes in extremes based on multi-model simulations from nine global coupled climate models, adapted from Tebaldi et al. (2006). (a) Globally averaged
changes in precipitation intensity (defined as the annual total precipitation divided by the number of wet days) for a low (SRES B1), middle (SRES A1B) and high (SRES A2)
scenario. (b) Changes in spatial patterns of simulated precipitation intensity between two 20-year means (2080–2099 minus 1980–1999) for the A1B scenario.
Changes in spatial patterns of simulated precipitation intensity between two 20-year means (2080–2099 minus 1980–1999) for the A1B scenario

20. Time series of global mean sea level (deviation from the
mean) in the past and as projected for the future. For the period before
1870, global measurements of sea level are not available. The grey shading shows
the uncertainty in the estimated long-term rate of sea level change (Section 6.4.3).
The red line is a reconstruction of global mean sea level from tide gauges (Section
), and the red shading denotes the range of variations from a smooth curve.
The green line shows global mean sea level observed from satellite altimetry. The
blue shading represents the range of model projections for the SRES A1B scenario
for the 21st century, relative to the 1980 to 1999 mean, and has been calculated
independently from the observations. Beyond 2100, the projections are increasingly
dependent on the emissions scenario (see Chapter 10 for a discussion of sea level
rise projections for other scenarios considered in this report). Over many centuries or
millennia, sea level could rise by several metres (Section ).

21. The global carbon cycle for the 1990s, showing the main annual fluxes in GtC yr–1: pre-industrial ‘natural’ fluxes in black and ‘anthropogenic’ fluxes in red
(modified from Sarmiento and Gruber, 2006, with changes in pool sizes from Sabine et al., 2004a). The net terrestrial loss of –39 GtC is inferred from cumulative fossil fuel
emissions minus atmospheric increase minus ocean storage. The loss of –140 GtC from the ‘vegetation, soil and detritus’ compartment represents the cumulative emissions
from land use change (Houghton, 2003), and requires a terrestrial biosphere sink of 101 GtC (in Sabine et al., given only as ranges of –140 to –80 GtC and 61 to 141 GtC,
respectively; other uncertainties given in their Table 1). Net anthropogenic exchanges with the atmosphere are from Column 5 ‘AR4’ in Table 7.1. Gross fluxes generally have
uncertainties of more than ±20% but fractional amounts have been retained to achieve overall balance when including estimates in fractions of GtC yr–1 for riverine transport,
weathering, deep ocean burial, etc. ‘GPP’ is annual gross (terrestrial) primary production. Atmospheric carbon content and all cumulative fluxes since 1750 are as of end 1994.

22. Schönwiese, 2010

23. Normalphase. Die Walker Zirkulation schiebt warmes Oberflächenwasser nach Westen. Kaltes Tiefenwasser wird an der Küste Südamerikas nach oben gespült. (NOAA / PMEL / TAO)
El-Niño-Phase. Das Absinken der Thermoklinen bewirkt eine Erwärmung des Oberflächenwassers vor der Küste Südamerikas in Form einer sogenannten Warmwasserzunge.

24. Schönwiese, 2010