1. 2013 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation
Feb. 15, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
Imports 14 8 28 29
100
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,516
11,869
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,795
4,548
4,450
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,500
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,426
1,387
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,834
1,543
900
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,237
Ending Stocks
632
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.22
7.20
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,015
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
169
Imports 13 15 14 16 20
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,204
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,615
Seed & Residual
106
110
130 91
120
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,362
1,345
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,080
Ending Stocks
125
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.30
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
63.2
59.2
53.6
54.4
55.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.9
44.5
46.3
43.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,499
2,218
2,207
1,999
2,269
Beg. Stocks
306
657
976
862
743
Imports
127
119 97
112
130
Total Supply
2,932
2,993
3,279
2,974
3,142
Food
927
919
926
941
950
Seed 78 69 71 76 75
Feed & Residual
255
150
132
164
375
Exports
1,015
879
1,289
1,050
Total Use
2,275
2,018
2,417
2,231
2,450
Ending Stocks
691
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.78
4.87
5.70
7.24
7.90
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. Price Ratios Since June 1

6. Corn Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: Bushels/acre

7. Soybean Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: Bushels/acre

8. Winter Wheat Acreage Top: 2013 Planted Acreage
Bottom: % Change from 2012
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

9. Snow Cover
Source: USDA-WAOB and NOAA

10. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. World Wheat Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

14. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

15. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 15 15

16. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Corn Grind for Ethanol

20. Ethanol Stocks

21. Current Corn Futures
6.62
5.29
5.13
Source: CME Group, 2/12/2013

22. Current Soybean Futures
13.91
12.11
11.83
Source: CME Group, 2/12/2013

23. Current Wheat Futures
7.92
7.84
Source: KCBOT, 2/12/2013

24. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS
We brought back a lot of acres in Can we hold them in 2013?
Source: USDA-NASS

25. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011
Weather was great for planting in 2012 (just not for producing). To hold acreage we will need great planting weather again.
Top: Planted in 2012
Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

27. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Soil moisture issues, key for all 3 crops
Export strength/weakness, competition among feed grains
Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing
2012/13
USDA
Futures
(2/12/13)
2013/14
Corn
$7.20
$6.62
$5.29
Soybeans
$14.30
$13.91
$12.11
Wheat
$7.90
$7.84
$7.92

28. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: