1. Inference on Proportions

2. Assumptions: SRS Normal distribution np > 10 & n(1-p) > 10
Population is at least 10n

3. Formula for Confidence interval:
Normal curve
Note: For confidence intervals, we DO NOT know p – so we MUST substitute p-hat for p in both the SD & when checking assumptions.

4. A May 2000 Gallup Poll found that 38% of a random sample of 1012 adults said that they believe in ghosts. Find a 95% confidence interval for the true proportion of adults who believe in ghosts.

5. Step 1: check assumptions!
Have an SRS of adults
np =1012(.38) = & n(1-p) = 1012(.62) = Since both are greater than 10, the distribution can be approximated by a normal curve
Population of adults is at least 10*1012.
Step 1: check assumptions!
Step 2: make calculations
Step 3: conclusion in context
We are 95% confident that the true proportion of adults who believe in ghosts is between 35% and 41%.

6. Another Gallop Poll is. taken
Another Gallop Poll is taken in order to measure the proportion of adults who approve of attempts to clone humans. What sample size is necessary to be within of the true proportion of adults who approve of attempts to clone humans with a 95% Confidence Interval?
To find sample size:
However, since we have not yet taken a sample, we do not know a p-hat (or p) to use!

7. What p-hat (p) do you use when trying to find the sample size for a given margin of error?
.1(.9) = .09
.2(.8) = .16
.3(.7) = .21
.4(.6) = .24
.5(.5) = .25
By using .5 for p-hat, we are using the worst-case scenario and using the largest SD in our calculations.

8. Another Gallop Poll is taken in order to measure the proportion of adults who approve of attempts to clone humans. What sample size is necessary to be within of the true proportion of adults who approve of attempts to clone humans with a 95% Confidence Interval?
Use p-hat = .5
Divide by 1.96
Square both sides
Round up on sample size

9. Stop & do classwork!

10. Hypotheses for proportions:
H0: p = value
Ha: p > value
where p is the true proportion of context
Use >, <, or ≠

11. Formula for hypothesis test:

12. A company is willing to renew its advertising contract with a local radio station only if the station can prove that more than 20% of the residents of the city have heard the ad and recognize the company’s product. The radio station conducts a random sample of 400 people and finds that 90 have heard the ad and recognize the product. Is this sufficient evidence for the company to renew its contract?

13. Use the parameter in the null hypothesis to check assumptions!
Have an SRS of people
np = 400(.2) = 80 & n(1-p) = 400(.8) = Since both are greater than 10, this distribution is approximately normal.
Population of people is at least 4000.
Use the parameter in the null hypothesis to check assumptions!
H0: p = .2 where p is the true proportion of people who
Ha: p > .2 heard the ad
Use the parameter in the null hypothesis to calculate standard deviation!
Since the p-value >a, I fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is not sufficient evidence to suggest that the true proportion of people who heard the ad is greater than .2.