1. Public Opinion
Abbreviated Lecture

2. Outline Effects of Polarization 2016 Demographic Voting Patterns
Political Knowledge
2016 Demographic Voting Patterns
Gender, Race, Marital Status, Religion, Ideology, Party ID

3. How Polarization Affects Public Opinion

4. Polarization’s Effect on Public Opinion Measuring Political Knowledge
Polarization and Public Opinion
Polarization: In a polarized political environment, as what exists today, opinion leaders disagree and it is much more difficult to persuade the public
Only those with a “moderate” level of political knowledge can be persuaded in a polarized political culture
Those with a “high” level of political knowledge have made up their minds and cannot be persuaded; those with “low” levels of political knowledge don’t pay attention, so they don’t hear the message
Political Knowledge: Basic knowledge about politics
Which political party has the most members in the US Senate?
Which political party has the most members in the US House?
What is the name of the US Vice President?
What is the name of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives?
Name both of the US Senators from your state?
Who is the Chief Justice of the United States?
Polarization occurs when the two political parties advocate very different policy agendas. Today, the political system is highly polarized.
High level of political knowledge: 4 or 5 questions answered correctly. Medium level of political knowledge: 3 questions answered correctly. Low level of political knowledge: 1 or 2 questions answered correctly
Here are a sample of the types of questions asked to measure political knowledge.
Which political party has a majority of the US Senate? Republicans
Which political party has a majority of the US House? Democrats
What is the name of the VP? Mike Pence
Who is the Speaker of the US House? Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
The two US Senators from Texas: Ted Cruz and John Cornyn
Who is the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court? John Roberts.

5. Political Knowledge Political Figures the Public can Identify
The more visible the political office, the more likely a higher % of the public will be able to identify the office holder
The president is in the news everyday. That’s why people know a lot about the president. The members of the Supreme Court get little press. That’s why almost no one knows the name of the Chief Justice.

6. The 2016 Presidential Election
Demographics
The 2016 Presidential Election

7. Demographics 2016 Presidential Vote
The Gender Gap – Typically, the Democrat wins more women voters while Republicans win more male voters. This was true for Trump (though Obama closed the gap with men in 2008 and 2012).
Men: % - Hillary Clinton; 52% - Trump
Women: 54% - Hillary Clinton; 41% - Trump
Race – Minorities tend to vote more Democratic, particularly Black voters…Hillary Clinton won a lower % of white votes than did Obama
Whites: % - Hillary Clinton; 57% - Trump
Blacks: % - Hillary Clinton; 8% - Trump
Hispanics 66% - Hillary Clinton; 28% - Trump
Asians % - Hillary Clinton; 27% - Trump
Source:
Source:
2016 Exit Polls
The conventional wisdom coming out of the 2012 presidential election was that a Republican needed to win a greater % of the Hispanic vote in order to win the presidency. At points in the campaign, polls showed Trump polling at about 14% among Hispanics, much lower than Romney’s 27% share of the Hispanic vote in But on Election Day (2016), Trump won 28% of the Hispanic vote nationwide (34% of Hispanic voters in Texas). It turned out that Trump won by winning more disgruntled white voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania (the Rust Belt), turning those states in his favor.
Hillary Clinton’s share of the black vote was down from that of Obama. Obama won 95% and 93% of black voters in 2008 and 2012, respectively. Hillary won 89% of the black vote in Generally, Hillary Clinton’s share of other minorities was lower than Obama’s. While Obama won 71% of Hispanics in 2012 and 73% of Asians, Hillary Clinton won 66% and 65% of Hispanics and Asians, respectively.
Hillary Clinton even did worse with women voters than Obama, winning 54% of the female vote in 2016, compared to Obama’s 56% in 2008 and 55% in She also did slightly worse with male voters, 41% to Obama’s 42% in 2012.
Trump (in 2016) did worse with male and female voters than did Romney in 2012, winning 52% of the men’s vote (Romney won 56% of the male vote in 2012) and 41% of the female vote (Romney’s % was 44%). So, both Trump and Hillary Clinton did worse with men and women voters, which means that more men and women in 2016 voted for 3rd parties.
2012 Exit Polls Traditionally, the gender gap indicates that women vote more Democratic. As it turns out, the vote turnout in 2012 was similar to Women were 53% of the electorate in 2012, the same % as in 2008, except Obama did a little better with women in 2008, winning 56% compared to 55% in Obama did worse with men in 2012, down from 49% in 2008 to 45% in 2012.
Obama did worse with white voters in 2012, winning 39% of the white vote, which was down 4% when compared to In 2008, he won 43% of the white vote. The % of whites in the electorate was down as well, down from 75% (2008) of the electorate to 72% (2012).
2012:
Whites: % - Obama; 59% - Romney
Blacks: % - Obama; 6% - Romney
Hispanics 71% - Obama; 27% - Romney
Asians % - Obama; 26% - Romney
13% of the electorate were African Americans, which was the same as in 2008, though in 2008, 95% of blacks voted for Obama.
Hispanics were 10% of the electorate, and 71% voted for Obama—that’s up from 9% of the electorate in 2008, in which 67% voted for Obama. The Hispanic vote put a lot of fear in Republicans, who moved in 2013 to try to strike a compromise with Democrats on an immigration reform bill (though there was some momentum on immigration reform early in 2013, that momentum disappeared and 2013 ended with no immigration reform bill passing Congress)
Asians voted more heavily for Obama as well, up from 62% (2008) to 73% (2012). The Asian vote was 3% of the electorate.
2010 Exit Polls: or
Men voted more Republican in 2010, 55% to 41% for Democrats
2008 Exit Polls
Men: % - Obama; 48% - McCain
Women: 56% - Obama; 43% - McCain
Whites: % - Obama; 55% - McCain
Blacks: % - Obama; 4% - McCain
Hispanics 67% - Obama; 31% - McCain
Asians % - Obama; 35% - McCain
2004: Bush nearly closed the gender gap among women
Men: % - Bush; 44% - Kerry
Women: 48% - Bush; 51% - Kerry
In 2000, women: 54% Gore; 43% Bush
In 2000, Hispanics: 62% Gore; 35% Bush
2004: Bush won more Hispanic votes than most Republicans do
Whites: % - Bush; 41% - Kerry
Blacks: % - Bush; 88% - Kerry
Hispanics 44% - Bush; 53% - Kerry
Asians % - Bush; 56% - Kerry

8. Demographics 2016 Presidential Vote
Marital Status – Married people vote more Republican, while unmarried people vote heavily for Democrats. Obama closed the married gap to 5% in 2008
Married: % - Hillary Clinton; 52% - Trump
Unmarried: 55% - Hillary Clinton; 37% - Trump
Religion – Regular attendees to church vote more Republican, though Catholics are a swing vote, voting for Bush in 2004 then for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and back to Trump in 2016
Protestant: % - Hillary Clinton; 56% - Trump
Catholic: % - Hillary Clinton; 50% - Trump
Jewish: % - Hillary Clinton; 23% - Trump
Other: % -- Hillary Clinton; 29% -- Trump
No Religion: % -- Hillary Clinton: 25% -- Trump
2012 exit polls:
2010 exit polls:
2010 midterm election results:
2016 Exit Polls
Hillary Clinton (in 2016) outperformed Obama (in 2012) with married voters, winning 44% of married voters while Obama won 42% (in 2012). But Hillary did worse than Obama with unmarried voters, winning 55% of them while Obama won 62% of unmarried voters in 2012.
In 2016, Catholic voters swung back to the Republicans, 50% voting for Trump, 46% voting for Clinton. Hillary Clinton won a lower % of the protestant vote than Obama in 2012, 39% to 42%, but Trump also did worse than Romney in 2012, 56% to 57%. Hillary did better with Jewish voters than Obama in 2012, 71% to 69%. Trump did much worse than Romney in 2012 with Jewish voters, 23% to 30%. Other would include Muslims, who turned out more for the Democrats in Atheists and agnostics voted 2 to 1 for Hillary Clinton.
2012 Exit Polls
Protestants are 53% of the electorate; Catholics are 25%; Jews 2%, and others 7% and no religion 12%.
Protestant: % - Obama; 57% - Romney
Catholic: 50% - Obama; 48% - Romney
Jewish: % - Obama; 30% - Romney
The protestant vote was stronger for the Republican candidate (Romney) in 2012 than in 2008, 57% (Romney; 15% gap over Obama) to 54% (McCain; 9% gap over Obama)
Catholics are a swing vote in presidential elections, voting for George W. Bush in 2004 but switching to Barack Obama in The question in 2012 was whether Catholics would abandon Obama, given that the birth control mandate goes against church doctrine, but Obama won the Catholic vote in 2012, 50% to 48%, down from 2008, when he won it by 54% to 45%--and Catholics were down to 25% of the electorate in 2012, from 27% in 2008.
By historical standards, Romney did exceptionally well with Jewish voters, winning 30%, up 9% over McCain’s share of the Jewish vote. Obama has not had great relations with Netanyahu (the PM of Israel), and Jews are a little nervous about Obama’s commitment to Israel. Consequently, his share of the Jewish vote dropped from 78% (2008) to 69% (2012)
2012:
Married: % - Obama; 56% - Romney
Unmarried: 62% - Obama; 35% - Romney
2010 Exit Polls
Protestants were 55% of the electorate; Catholics are 23%, and Jews 2% -- others 8% and no religion 12%
Catholics voted more Republican in 2010, 54% to 44%, Republicans over Democrats
2008 Exit Polls
Protestants were 54% of the electorate; Catholics are 27%, and Jews 2%
Married: % - Obama; 52% - McCain
Unmarried: 65% - Obama; 33% - McCain
Protestant: % - Obama; 54% - McCain
Catholic: % - Obama; 45% - McCain
Jewish: % - Obama; 21% - McCain
Attend Church: % - Obama; 55% - McCain
Occasionally: % - Obama; 42% - McCain
Never: % - Obama; 30% - McCain
2004 Exit Polls
Protestants were 54% of the electorate; Catholics were 27%; Jews 3%
Marital Status – Married people vote more Republican
Married: % - Bush; 42% - Kerry
Unmarried: 40% - Bush; 58% - Kerry
Religion – Religious people vote more Republican
Protestant: % - Bush; 40% - Kerry
Catholic: % - Bush; 47% - Kerry
Jewish: % - Bush; 74% - Kerry
Attend Church: % - Bush; 39% - Kerry
Do Not Attend: % - Bush; 62% - Kerry
2010 midterm election results:

9. Demographics 2016 Presidential Vote
Party ID: Trump won the independents!! Typically, the candidate who wins the independent vote wins the election (not always, there were exceptions in 2004 and 2012). Still, in 2016, 12% of Independents voted for a 3rd party, which is an unusually high %
Republican: % - Hillary Clinton; 88% - Trump
Democrat: % - Hillary Clinton; 8% - Trump
Independents: 42% - Hillary Clinton; 46% - Trump
2012 exit polls:
2016 Exit Polls
In 2016, 36% polled as Democrats, 33% as Republicans, and 31% as Independents, which was different than in 2012, when 38% self-identified as Democrats, 32% as Republicans, and 29% as Independents. The electorate was slightly more favorable to the Republican in 2016, when compared to 2012.
One reason pollsters had such a hard time predicting who would win in 2016 was because there were so many Independents polling as 3rd party supporters. The pollsters could not categorize them as voting for one of the major candidates, even though a large % of those who say they will vote for a 3rd party actually vote for a major party candidate on Election Day.
2012 Exit Polls
Republican: % - Obama; 93% - Romney
Democrat: % - Obama; 7% - Romney
Independents: 45% - Obama; 50% - Romney
Independents broke for Romney, 50% to 45% in 2012—and they were the same % of the electorate, 29% in 2008 as well as in In 2008, Obama won independents 52% to 44%. Romney won an additional 1.75 million by winning the independent vote by 5% (120,000,000 votes * 0.29 * 0.05 = 1.74 million votes).
But even though Romney won the independent vote, Obama made up for it by getting so many more Democrats to the polls. 38% of the electorate were Democratic identifiers, while 32% of the electorate were Republican identifiers—more Democrats voted, 6% more. This netted Obama 5.4 million votes ((120,000,000 votes * 0.38 * 0.92) + (120,000,000 * 0.32 * 0.06) – (120,000,000 votes * 0.32 * 0.93) – (120,000,000 * 0.38 * 0.07) = 5.4 million votes). So, Obama netted 5.4 million votes because the electorate was more Democratic, which is much more than 1.75 million votes Romney netted by winning independents.
Obama’s “get out the vote” was only slightly down from 2008—39% of the electorate were Democrats in 2008; 38% in Most of the pre-election predictions were that Democrats would not come out in high numbers but Republicans would. It turned out to be the opposite.
Conservatives were 35% of the electorate (down 1% from 2008), moderates 41% (down 3% from 2008), and Liberals 25% (up 3% from 2008).
2010 Exit Polls
Democrats were 35% of the electorate; Republicans were 35%; Independents were 29%.
Conservatives were 42%; Liberals were 20%; Moderates were 38% of the electorate.
56% of independents voted for Republicans, and 37% for Democrats – the independents voted heavily for Obama in 2008 (by an 8% margin) but voted even more so for Republicans in the 2010 (by a 19% margin)
2008 Exit Polls
Democrats were 39% of the electorate; Republicans were 32%; Independents were 29%. Conservatives were 34%; Liberals were 22%; Moderates were 44% of the electorate.
Conservative: 20% - Obama; 78% - McCain
Liberal: % - Obama; 10% - McCain
Moderate: % - Obama; 39% - McCain
Republican: % - Obama; 90% - McCain
Democrat: % - Obama; 10% - McCain
Independents: 52% - Obama; 44% - McCain
2004 Exit Polls
Republicans were 37% of the electorate; Democrats were 37%; Independents were 26%.
Conservatives were 34%, Liberals were 21%, and Moderates were 45%
2004
Ideology: Moderates voted more Democratic in 2004
Conservative: 84% - Bush; 15% - Kerry
Liberal: % - Bush; 85% - Kerry
Moderate: % - Bush; 54% - Kerry
Party ID: Independent voters are evenly divided
Republican: % - Bush; 6% - Kerry
Democrat: % - Bush; 89% - Kerry
Independents: 48% - Bush; 49% - Kerry