1. RSA Insight Report: Supporting Slides
Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal
comprising Clackmannanshire and Stirling
Evidence Base Team
Glasgow

2. Contents Explanation of Thermometer Chart
1. The Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by City Deal Region 2015
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by RSA Local Authority 2015
Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base (2016)
Proportions of Businesses by Size Band (2016)
Business Births and Deaths per ( ) and Business survival index ( )
Resident and Workplace Based Earnings 2016 (Median)
Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC1)
Deprivation Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal by SIMD (2016) Deciles1 1-10
Population projections change by age band 2014 – 2039
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by City Deal Region
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Local Authority
School Leavers Destinations 2009/10 and 2015/16

3. 2. Demand for Stirling Total Employment Projections (jobs) (2000-2027)
Total Employment (jobs) Projections by Status and Gender
Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal Occupation Structure 2000 and 2017 (people 000s)
Total employment (people 000s) by occupation 2017 and 2027
Proportion of occupations at top middle and bottom of labour market 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (people 000s) Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal
Proportion of total requirement at top middle and bottom of labour market
Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector 2017 and 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs 000s) Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal
Total employment (jobs 000s) by key sector 2017 and 2027
Total Employment by qualification (000s) Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal 2017 and 2027
Total Requirement by qualification (people 000s) Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal

4. Explanation of thermometer/bullet chart
Although most people are familiar with a grouped bar chart:...
... a thermometer (or bullet) chart shows both bars in one enabling more space to be used which is more practical when dealing with more cluttered charts showing 2 digit SIC and SOC for example.
The figures are the ‘thermometer’ and the 2027 figures act as the ‘mercury’. This enables a comparison to be made as to whether there has been a rise or fall compared with the 2017 baseline. And example is given below:
2027 figures less than 2017
2016 figure
2017
2024 figure
2027 figures more than 2017
2027

5. 1. The Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal

6. Figure 2.1: Distribution of GVA (£million, constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by City Deal Region, 2015
High GVA High Productivity
Low GVA High Productivity
Low GVA Low Productivity
High GVA Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

7. Figure 2.2: Distribution of GVA (£million, constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by RSA Local Authority, 2015
High GVA High Productivity
Low GVA High Productivity
Low GVA Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.
High GVA Low Productivity

8. Table 2.1: Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base, (2016)
Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal
Clackmannanshire
Stirling
Scotland
Agriculture forestry & fishing 9% 4%
10%
Production 5% 8% 6%
Construction
11%
13%
Motor trades 2% 3%
Wholesale
Retail 7%
Transport & storage
Accommodation & food services
Information & communication
Financial & insurance
<1%
Property
Professional scientific & technical
18%
17%
19%
Business admin & support
Public admin. & defence 0%
Education 1%
Health
Arts entertainment recreation other
Total
5045
1140
3905
171905
Source: UK Business Counts

9. Table 2.2: Proportions of businesses by size band, 2016
Clackmannanshire
Stirling
Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal
Scotland
0-9
88%
10-49
11%
10%
50-249 1% 2%
250+ 0%
<1%
Source: UK Business Counts

10. Figure 2.3 Business births and deaths per 10,000 population ( ) and Business Survival Index ( )
Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-Year Population Estimates. Note: data for Business Survival Rates only available for in Evidence Base.
Note: data for Business Survival Rates only available for in Evidence Base.

11. Table 2.3: Resident and workplace based earnings, 2016 (Median)
Area
Resident Earnings
Workplace Earnings
Difference between resident and workplace earnings
Clackmannanshire
£433
£444
-£11
Stirling
£466
£404
£62
Scottish Average
£434
£432 £2
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. Figures based on weekly pay of all workers.

12. Table 2.4: Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC1)
SOC 1-3
SOC 4-6
SOC 7-9
Clackmannanshire
42%
29%
Stirling
65%
19%
16%
Source: Origin Destination statistics by Local Authority open access (WB07BUK_la) UK Data Service
1 See SOC Codes for Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal here:

13. Figure 2.4: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by City Deal Region
High Unemployment High Inactivity
Low Unemployment High Inactivity
High Unemployment Low Inactivity
Low Unemployment Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based)
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

14. Figure 2.5: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Local Authority
High Unemployment High Inactivity
Low Unemployment High Inactivity
High Unemployment Low Inactivity
Low Unemployment Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based)
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

15. Figure 2.6: Deprivation in Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal by SIMD (2016) Deciles2 1-10
Source: Scottish Government 2016
2 See SIMD interactive map here:

16. Table 2.5: Population projections, change by age band, 2014 – 2039
0 -15
16-29
30-49
50-64
65-74
75+
Total
Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal
-1%
-9%
-4%
-10%
27%
97% 6%
Clackmannanshire
-14%
-20%
-21%
23%
112%
-3%
Stirling 4%
-6%
30%
90%
11%
Scotland 1%
-8%
-2%
85% 7%
Source: National Records of Scotland.

17. Table 2. 7: School Leavers’ Destinations, 2009/10 and 2015/16
Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal
Clackmannanshire
Stirling
Higher education (%)
2009/10
35%
28%
39%
2015/16
36%
22%
42%
Change 1%
-6% 3%
Further education (%)
19%
23%
17%
16%
-1%
-2%
Employment (%)
25%
24%
26%
33%
10%
14% 7%
Unemployed (%)
13% 6%
-7%
-8%
Unemployment Seeking and Unemployment Not Seeking.
Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset

18. 2. Demand for Skills in Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal

19. Figure 3.1: Total Employment Projections (jobs), 2000-2027
Source: Oxford Economics

20. Figure 3.2: Total Employment (jobs) projections, 2000-2027 by status and gender  
Source: Oxford Economics

21. Figure 3.3: Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal Occupational Structure, and 2017 (people, 000s)
Source: Oxford Economics

22. Figure 3.4: Total employment (people, 000s) by occupation, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

23. Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal
Table 3.1: Proportion of occupations at top, middle and bottom of labour market, 2027
Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal
Clackmannanshire
Stirling
Higher level jobs
44%
Middle level jobs
31%
33%
30%
Lower level jobs
25%
23%
26%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

24. Table 3.2: Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (people, 000s), Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal,
Occupation
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Managers directors & senior officials
0.1
1.0
Professional occupations
0.4
5.7
6.1
Associate professional & technical occupations
0.7
0.8
Administrative & secretarial occupations
-0.1
1.4
1.3
Skilled trades occupations
0.3
2.2
2.5
Caring leisure & other service occupations
0.2
0.9
1.1
Sales & customer service occupations
2.4
2.6
Process plant & machine operatives
0.0
Elementary occupations
4.4
4.8
Total
19.6
21.0
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data.

25. Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal
Table 3.3: Proportion of total requirement at top, middle and bottom of labour market,
Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal
Clackmannanshire
Stirling
Higher jobs
38%
32%
39%
Middle level jobs
23%
22%
24%
Lower level jobs
46%
37%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

26. Figure 3.5: Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

27. Table 3.4: Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (jobs 000s) Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal
Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Agriculture forestry and fishing
-0.1
1.4
1.3
Mining and quarrying
-0.02
0.02
-0.01
Manufacturing
-0.6
0.8
0.1
Electricity gas steam and air conditioning
0.03
0.01
Water supply sewerage waste management
-0.03
0.7
Construction
1.9
Wholesale and retail trade
0.5
5.9
6.4
Transport and storage
1.5
Accommodation and food services
0.4
3.4
3.8
Information and communication
0.0
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional scientific and technical
Admin. and support services
0.9
2.2
3.1
Public admin. and defence
-0.5
Education
-0.2
2.4
Human health and social work
0.2
2.1
Arts entertainment and recreation
1.1
Other service activities
Total
2.5
23.8
26.3
Source: Oxford Economics

28. Figure 3.6: Total employment (jobs, 000s) by key sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

29. Table 3.5 Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s) Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal,
Key Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Chemical sciences
-0.2
0.3
0.1
Construction
1.2
4.5
5.7
Creative industries
0.2
1.0
Energy
0.03
Engineering
-0.5
1.8
1.3
Financial and business services
0.8
2.9
3.7
Food and drink
1.4
Health and social care
-0.04
10.0
9.9
ICT/digital
0.6
Life sciences
0.016
Tourism
0.4
8.9
9.3
Total
2.0
31.8
33.7
Source: Oxford Economics

30. Figure 3.7: Employment by qualification (people, 000s), Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

31. Table 3.6: Total Requirement by qualification (people, 000s), Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal,
Qualification
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
SCQF 11-12
0.3
1.0
1.3
SCQF 7-10
1.1
8.6
9.6
SCQF 6
-0.2
2.8
2.6
SCQF 5
4.6
5.0
SCQF 1-4
-0.1
No Qualifications
0.0
1.5
Total
1.4
19.6
21.0
Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Figures for 2027 only