1. The Invasion of Iraq 2003 “Operation Iraqi Freedom?”

2. Milestones March 3, 2003: Pres. Bush announces Iraqi invasion
April 9, 2003: Baghdad falls
April 19, 2003: Cement mixer truck bomb hits UN mission killing 17
May 1, 2003: Bush announces “mission accomplished”
May 16, 2003: CPA Order # 1 removes 50,000 Ba’ath Party members from power
May 23, 2003: CPA Order # 2 disbands the Iraqi Army

3. Milestones
August 7, 2003: Jordanian Embassy in Baghdad bombed – first terrorist-style attack in Iraq
December 13, 2003: Saddam captured
April 30, 2004: Abu Ghraib Scandal breaks
June 2004: Bremer turns power over to Iraqi interim government
September 2004: 1,000 American battle deaths
November 7, 2004: 1st Battle of Falluja
January 2005: Elections for new government

4. Milestones October 2005: 2,000 American battle deaths
November 19th 2005: Haditha Massacre, 24 die after IED
October 2005: Constitutional election
December 2005: Parliamentary election
December 2006: 3,000 American battle deaths
March 2008: 4,000 American battle deaths
August 2010: Pres. Obama declares end to U.S. combat in Iraq
2018 4,000 battle deaths? (31k wounded)

5. Why were we there? WMD George W. Bush Bush Advisors 9/11
Preventive War
US Strategic Culture
Oil

6. Missed Opportunities
February 2003: General Eric Shinseki warns that “something on the order of several hundred thousand” soldiers will be needed for postwar Iraq. He is ignored.
May, 2003: De-Ba’athification and disbanding the army leave 300,000 men with military training suddenly unemployed.
: Cities Strategy and “Whack-a-Mole” operations. Attempts to fight the war by ourselves.

7. Mistakes WMD Disbanding Iraqi Army De-Bathification
Military Strategy – Search and Destroy - Conveying overly negative image vs. Winning hearts and minds

8. Mistakes
Underestimating the influence of Iran in Iraqi Shiite politics
Cultural differences: Arabs vs. Kurds
Misunderstanding of terrorism

9. Mistakes Security (Transportation, Blackwater, Weapons, Borders)
Economically: Where is the money going? Where was the oil revenue that was supposed to pay for all of this?

10. Nature of the Insurgency
The “Reconcilables”
Former Ba’athists
Special Republican Guard officers
The “Irreconcilables”
AQI
Paid $35 for RPG attack, $500 for confirmed kill of Americans

11. IED’s and VBIEDs

12. The sectarian nature of Iraq: Sunni, Shia and Kurd

13. Success How do you measure success? The “Surge” Saddam out of power
COIN strategy: U.S. and Iraqi forces together
Indirect Counterinsurgency
The Anbar Awakening
Saddam out of power
Increased enlistment into Iraqi Army/Reduced US presence
Elections/New Government
Normal life has/has not resumed?

14. the future
Kurd independence?
Mapping the new Middle East
Egypt

15. The War in afghanistan
The Longest War in American History

16. Geography

17. Life expectancy – 44.4 years 24% in urban centers
Population
Total -- 28,395,716 (est. July 2010)
Structure
0-14 years: 43.6%
15-64 years: 54%
65 years and over: 2.4%
Median Age – 18 years
Life expectancy – 44.4 years
24% in urban centers

18. Ethnic make-up Ethnic groups Religion Language Pashtun 42%, Tajik 27%,
Hazara 9%,
Uzbek 9%,
Aimak 4%,
Turkmen 3%,
Baloch 2%,
other 4%
Religion
Sunni Muslim 80%,
Shia Muslim 19%,
Other 1%
Language
Afghan Persian or Dari (official) 50%,
Pashto (official) 35%,
Turkic languages (primarily Uzbek and Turkmen) 11%,
30 minor languages (primarily Balochi and Pashai) 4%,
Ethnic make-up

19. Economy GDP Labor – 15 million (2004 est.) Products
$27.01 billion (2009 est.) – 110 in world rank
$1,000/capita (2009 est.) – 210 in world rank
Labor – 15 million (2004 est.)
agriculture: 78.6%
industry: 5.7%
services: 15.7% (FY08/09 est.)
35% unemployed (2008 est.)
Products
Agricultural -- opium, wheat, fruits, nuts; wool, mutton, sheepskins, lambskins
Industrial -- small-scale production of consumer goods; hand-woven carpets; natural gas, coal, copper

20. Afghanistan Facts
Afghanistan is 174th of 178 countries on the UN development index
Afghanistan is 176th of 180 countries on the UN corruption index
GDP per capita is $456, up from 352 last year
90% of Aghan budget comes from foreign aid
Afghanistan supplies 90% of the world’s opium, worth $3 billion to the economy
Taliban make $200 million per year from taxing poppy production

21. History 1747 – unification of the Pashtun tribes
independence from notional British control
1973 coup and a 1978 Communist counter-coup resulted in Soviet Union invasion 1979
1989 USSR withdrawal
1996 end of civil war period control by Taliban
11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in NYC and Washington, D.C.
7 October 2001 U.S., Allied, and anti-Taliban Northern Alliance military action toppled the Taliban.
December 2004, Hamid KARZAI became the first democratically elected president of Afghanistan and the National Assembly was inaugurated the following December.

22. Afghanistan Facts
The Taliban, Sunni fundamentalists, had controlled most of Afghanistan since 1996 after defeat of the Northern Alliance. They provided safe haven for Osama Bin Laden and other members of al Qaeda during their planning of the 9/11 “Planes Operation”
The Taliban were only recognized by 3 other states and were known for a brutal strict interpretation of Sharia Law. The provided a training ground for radical Islamic terrorists

23. LEAD INTERNATIONAL FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN (pre-surge)

25. Afghanistan Facts
Operation “Enduring Freedom”, The US-led invasion in 2001 was largely special forces, CIA and air support for Northern Alliance forces, toppled the Taliban in just 2 months. Remnants of the Taliban moved to the Tora Bora region in Eastern Afghanistan or in to Pakistan

26. Afghanistan Facts
The UN Security Council created the NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to rebuild Afghanistan and provide security.
Hamid Karzai, “The Mayor of Kabul”
By 2003 the Taliban had regrouped in Pakistan
By 2007 Security incidents increased 300%.
IED attacks rose by 37%
The Karzai govt control only 75% of the country
Over 1000 civilians killed by ISAF

27. Afghanistan is not Iraq
Afghanistan Facts
Afghanistan is not Iraq

28. Afghanistan Facts “The Great Game”
History of Invasion – British, Soviet Union
& Pakistan

29. Whose side is pakistan on?

30. Afghanistan Facts The Afghan “Surge”
ISAF raised to 120K up from 70k (90k are American)
Indirect Counterinsurgency has reduced civilian casualties by half
“Clear, Hold, Build……and Transfer/WHAM
Focus remains Helmand & Kandahar provinces
Afghan Army and police recruiting are up, but illiteracy and desertion still present a problem

32. Issues What would represent a successful outcome?
“It’s 2018, and there are young men and women now being sent over there who were literally in diapers when we first sent troops to Afghanistan.”— Will Fischer, a former Marine lance Corporal, on the long U.S. involvement in the Afghan war.
What policies would you recommend?