1. NATURAL DISASTERS

2. What is environmental geology?
Criteria
10 or more people are killed
Affects more than 100 people
A declaration of emergency is issues
A request is made for international assistance
The number of natural disasters is increasing due to
Better reporting
Increases in human population are putting more people in hazardous areas
Environmental damage to land
Climate change

3. Natural Disasters In the past few decades, natural disasters have
Killed millions of people
~150,000 per year
Cost $50 billion per year
In addition to death and financial cost, natural disasters cause
Loss of employment
Loss of productivity
Mental anguish

4. What is a Natural Disaster?
A natural disaster is simply a natural process that becomes dangerous when people live or work where they occur
A natural process can also become dangerous as land use changes affect natural processes
The naturalness of a hazard can become a philosophical barrier that is encountered when trying to minimize their effects
Building on a beach
Building on a floodplain

5. Impact of an Event The impact of an event is a function of two things
Magnitude: the amount of energy released
Frequency: the recurrence of an event
Other factors also come into play
Climate
Geology
Vegetation
Population
Land use

6. Impact of an Event
In general, frequency is inversely related to magnitude
Magnitude and frequency largely controlled by natural factors
Impact controlled by natural and human factors
Low magnitude and high frequency events not always destructive
High magnitude low frequency events almost always catastrophic
Most impact from moderate magnitude events with a moderate frequency

7. Benefits of Natural Hazards
Flooding
Provides nutrients to a floodplain that enhances the fertility of soil
Provides sediment to coastal areas
Flushes pollutants from higher areas
Landslides
Can form natural dams
Volcanoes
Create new land (Hawaii)
Provide nutrient-rich material for soil formation

8. Benefits of Natural Hazards
Earthquakes
Can for fault gouge, an impervious clay layer
Fault gouge can form an underground barrier for groundwater
This can form a type of oasis in desert-like climates (southern California)

9. Death and Destruction
Natural hazards that cause great destruction do not always cause the greatest loss of life
Major losses in life usually occur in developing countries
Major losses to property occur in developed countries

10. Death and Destruction

11. Catastrophes
A catastrophe is any situation in which the damages to people, property, or society are sufficient t make the recovery effort a long, involved process
Floods
Hurricanes
Earthquakes
Volcanoes
Tornadoes

12. Catastrophes Catastrophes with moderate potential include
Landslides
Drought
Catastrophes with low potential include
Coastal erosion
Lightning
Expansive soils

13. Evaluating Hazards
Understanding hazards and how to minimize their impact is facilitated trough five key principles

14. Evaluating Hazards Hazards are known from scientific evaluation
Processes can be identified and studied using the scientific method
Processes can be monitored and mapped
Future activity can be evaluated based on the frequency of past events, patterns, and types of precursor events

15. Evaluating Hazards
Risk analysis is an important component in understanding impacts resulting from hazardous processes
Hazardous processes are amenable to risk analysis based on the probability of an event occurring and the consequences resulting from that event

16. Evaluating Hazards Hazards are linked
Processes are linked from simple to complex

17. Evaluating Hazards
Hazardous events that previously produced disasters are often now producing catastrophes
The size of a naturally hazardous event, as well as its frequency, is influenced by human activity
Due to an increasing human population and poor land sue practices, disasters are becoming catastrophes

18. Evaluating Hazards Consequences of hazards can be minimized
Minimizing the effects of hazardous events requires an integrated approach that includes scientific understanding, land use planning, and proactive disaster preparedness

19. Risk Assessment Risk determination
The risk of a particular event is defined as the probability of that event occurring multiplied by the consequences of that event should it actually occur

20. Risk Assessment Acceptable risk A complicated process
Many institutions approach acceptable risk form an economic perspective rather ethan a personal one

21. Risk Assessment Problems and opportunities
A frequent problem is lack of reliable data available for analyzing the probability of an event
It may also be difficult to ascertain the consequences of an event
Methods of determining risk assessment are improving, as our ability to estimate the consequences of events

22. Human Response Reactive Stages of recovery following a disaster are
Emergency work
Restoration of services and communication
Reconstruction

23. Human Response Anticipatory
Perceiving, avoiding, and adjusting to Hazards for avoiding or minimizing the impacts of disasters
Land-use planning
Insurance and other regulations for safety measures
Evacuation
Disaster awareness and preparedness: Individuals, families, cities, states, or even entire nations can practice

24. Human Response Artificial control of natural processes Mixed success
Many devices used may offer some protection but may have adverse effects
Even the best designed and built structures cannot protect from high-magnitude events
Many people choose to bear the loss of a natural event
Many are optimistic about making it through an event and do little to prepare

25. Predicting Changes Uniformitarianism
Derived by James Hutton, the father of modern geology
The present is key to the past
The same forces that operate on the Earth today, also operated during its entire history
Does not suggest that magnitude and frequency remain constant

26. Predicting Changes
The present may also be key in understanding the future
In making inferences about geologic events, we must consider the effects of human activity
Human activities, such as paving the ground may affect the magnitude and/or frequency of river flooding
Development in landslide prone areas may affect the frequency of these events

27. Environmental Unity One action causes others in a chain of actions
Building a dam on a river will
Trap sediment being transported by the river
Beaches would be deprived of this sediment
This may increase coastal erosion rates
This may also affect the habitats of coastal animals (crabs, clams, etc)

28. Earth Systems Science
Earth systems science is the study of the entire planet as a system in terms of its components.
It asks
How the systems are linked and have formed, evolved, and been maintained
How the components function
How they grow and evolve over time
It is also important to understand and predict how a change in one system will affect the others
Gaia Hypothesis

29. Hazardous Earth Processes
Many people live in naturally hazardous areas
The effects of flooding, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, and so forth are causing a greater impact today than ever before
Examples:
Human population has increased forcing more people to live in hazardous areas (floodplains, volcanoes, steep slopes, etc.)
Land use transformation (urbanization) increase run off leading to greater flood susceptibility and weaken slopes making landslides more likely
Burning fossil fuels has increased warming of the atmosphere and oceans, contributing to ecological effects

30. Hazardous Earth Processes
Statistics for the past two decades
Annual loss of life: ~150,000
Financial loss: >20 billion
More developed countries see more property damage

31. Scientific Knowledge and Values
Environmental science is an interdisciplinary field that combines information from many disciplines
Ecology
Geology
Meteorology
Chemistry
The goal of environmental science is to establish basic principles about how the natural world functions
These principles are used to develop viable solutions to environmental problems, based on scientific knowledge

32. The Scientific Method
Environmental problems are usually complex and scientific understanding of these problems may not always be complete
As such, scientists may make recommendations based on probabilities rather than precise answers
The key to solving any environmental problem is rigorous scientific evaluation
Science is not a body of knowledge
Science is a process

33. The Scientific Method
All science is based on the assumption that the natural world behaves in a consistent and predictable manner that is comprehensible through careful, systematic study
There are five basic steps involved in the scientific method

34. 1. Ask a Question The question can be about almost anything
The question posed can be new or related to an existing problem

35. Develop a Hypothesis An educated guess
Often more than one hypotheses are created
Must be testable
If a hypothesis cannot be tested, it is useless
Predictions should be made based on the hypothesis
The predictions are compared to objective observations in nature

36. 3. Design an Experiment
Make a step-by-step procedure with each step’s purpose
The experiment must be replicable by others

37. Experimentation
Each of the many factors that influence a process is called a variable
To evaluate alternative hypotheses about a specific variable, it is necessary to hold all other variables constant so that they are not misleading or confusing
To test a hypothesis about a variable, we carry out two forms of the experiment in parallel

38. Experimentation
In the experimental group, the chosen variable is altered in a known way
In the control group, that variable isn't altered
In all other respects, the experimental group and the control group are the same

39. Experimentation
Any difference in experimentation must be due to the influence of the variable we changed because all other variables remained the same

40. 4. Analyze and Interpret Data
Summarize results and conclusions
Refer back to the observations, data, and hypothesis for consistency
Identify mistakes in the process that could affect the outcome
State possible changes in future experiments
State what may be done differently in the future
Is your hypothesis accepted or rejected?

41. Analyze and Interpret Data
If the hypothesis is proven false, it does not necessarily mean a mistake has been made
A hypothesis proven false can
Decrease possible explanations for some phenomenon
Save the effort of having the experiment completed in the future
Suggest other ways of finding possible explanations
If a hypothesis is proven false, it is discarded

42. 5. Share Knowledge with Peers
Present study to peers
Be prepared to answer questions
Idea being tested
Hypothesis
Method of experimentation
Interpretation of the data
Peer review can reveal inconsistencies or errors in the study
Peers should be able to duplicate the design and experimentation of a hypothesis with similar results

43. Theory
After extensive testing, if a hypothesis maintains its credibility, then it may be promoted to a theory
A theory is an integrated explanation of numerous hypotheses, each supported by a large body of observations and experiments
Because a theory demonstrates the relationships among different data, it simplifies and clarifies our understanding of the natural world

44. Theory
A theory in science is a valuable tool that effectively explains some idea or phenomenon
In everyday use, it suggests uncertainty
In science, it is powerful
Theories are highly regarded because
They are widely accepted
Held with a high degree of confidence
Examples of theories?

45. The Scientific Method
A requirement of science is repeatability – observations and experiments must produce consistent data when they are repeated
There is no absolute certainty or universal agreement about anything in science
It is an ongoing enterprise and scientific concepts must be reevaluated in light of newly discovered data

46. The Scientific Method

47. Common Mistakes
The hypothesis is assumed to be the right answer and is not supported with testing
Data is ignored that does not support the outcome
Personal beliefs or biases influence testing of the hypothesis or interpretation of the results
Systematic errors in the testing process are not noticed
The equipment or conditions in the experiment are not adequate
Misinterpretation of the results

48. Solving Environmental Problems
Difficult processes
Environmental problems tend to be complex
Rapid changes, slow recognition, slower actions
Some changes are of irreversible nature
Environmental policy links to environmental economics in infancy

49. Precautionary Principle
When a potentially serious environmental problem exists, scientific certainty is not required to take a precautionary approach
Recognizes that scientific proof is not possible in most instances
Difficult to apply
How much scientific evidence is needed before taking action
Requires the use of the principle of environmental unity and predict the potential consequences of activities before they occur
Becomes proactive instead of reactive

50. Critical Thinking
Do you think the Earth is a living organism? Why or why not?
Why are people in Haiti so vulnerable to major natural hazards?
Why did you take this environmental geology course?
Would an exponential negative growth of human population be a solution to many environmental problems?
Are there any conflicts between global environmental unity principle and regional economic development?