1. BUS 411 Lecture 3

2. Agenda Apply for graduation Assignment 1 Graded Assignment 2
Results varied, Feedback provided
Difference between Citation and Reference
Assignment 2
Due Feb 7
Assignment 3 posted
Covers Chapter 3 & 4
Due Feb 14
Use Class generated SWOT for IFE and EFE
Begin lecture on The External Assessment

4. The External Assessment
Chapter Three

5. External Assessment – Wayne Calloway, Former CEO, PepsiCo
“It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.” – Charles Darwin
“Nothing focuses the mind better than the constant sight of a competitor who wants to wipe you off the map.”
– Wayne Calloway, Former CEO, PepsiCo

7. Chapter Objectives
Describe how to conduct an external strategic-management audit.
Discuss 10 major external forces that affect organizations: economic, social, cultural, demographic, environmental, political, governmental, legal, technological, and competitive.
Describe key sources of external information, including the Internet.
Discuss important forecasting tools used in strategic management.
Discuss the importance of monitoring external trends and events.
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8. Chapter Objectives (cont.)
Explain how to develop an EFE Matrix.
Explain how to develop a Competitive Profile Matrix.
Discuss the importance of gathering competitive intelligence.
Describe the trend toward cooperation among competitors.
Discuss market commonality and resource similarity in relation to competitive analysis.
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9. External Audit External audit
focuses on identifying and evaluating trends and events beyond the control of a single firm
reveals key opportunities and threats confronting an organization so that managers can formulate strategies to take advantage of the opportunities and avoid or reduce the impact of threats
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10. The Nature of an External Audit
The external audit is aimed at identifying key variables that offer actionable responses
Firms should be able to respond either offensively or defensively to the factors by formulating strategies that take advantage of external opportunities or that minimize the impact of potential threats.
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11. Key External Forces
External forces can be divided into five broad categories:
economic forces
social, cultural, demographic, and natural environment forces
political, governmental, and legal forces
technological forces
competitive forces
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12. Relationships Between Key External Forces and an Organization
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13. The Process of Performing an External Audit
First, gather competitive intelligence and information about economic, social, cultural, demographic, environmental, political, governmental, legal, and technological trends.
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14. The Process of Performing an External Audit
Information should be assimilated and evaluated
A final list of the most important key external factors should be communicated
10-20 External factors
balanced between opportunities and threats
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15. The Process of Performing an External Audit
Key external factors should be:
important to achieving long-term and annual objectives
measurable
applicable to all competing firms, and
hierarchical in the sense that some will pertain to the overall company and others will be more narrowly focused on functional or divisional areas
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16. The Industrial Organization (I/O) View
The Industrial Organization (I/O) approach to competitive advantage advocates that external (industry) factors are more important than internal factors in a firm for achieving competitive advantage.
Success is achieved by picking the right industry
Grocery Stores (food retail)
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17. The Industrial Organization (I/O) View
Firm performance is based more on industry properties
Economies of scale
Barriers to market entry
Product differentiation
The economy
Level of competitiveness
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18. Economic Forces
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19. Sources of Economic Data
FRED
World Bank
Google Public Data Explorer
Bureau of Economic Analysis
International Monetary Fund

20. $ < € ; $ < ¥ Exchange rates
$ < € ; $ < ¥
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21. Advantages and Disadvantages of a Weak Dollar
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22. Economic Trade Zones

23. Social, Cultural, Demographic, and Natural Environmental Forces
U.S. Facts
Aging population
Less white (except for Maine)
Widening gap between rich & poor
2025 = 18.5% population > 65 years
2075 = no ethnic or racial majority
United States Census Bureau
UN Data
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24. Social, Cultural, Demographic, and Natural Environmental Forces
Facts
World population 7 billion
World population = 8 billion by 2028
World population = 9 billion by 2054
U.S. population > 310 million
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25. Key Social, Cultural, Demographic, and Natural Environment Variables
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26. Political, Governmental, and Legal Forces
The increasing global interdependence among economies, markets, governments, and organizations makes it imperative that firms consider the possible impact of political variables on the formulation and implementation of competitive strategies.
US State Department
CIA Data
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27. Political, Government, and Legal Variables
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28. American Labor Unions
The extent that a state is unionized can be a significant political factor in strategic planning decisions as related to manufacturing plant location and other operational matters
The size of American labor unions has fallen sharply in the last decade due in large part to erosion of the U.S. manufacturing base
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29. Technological Forces
The Internet has changed the very nature of opportunities and threats by:
altering the life cycles of products,
increasing the speed of distribution,
creating new products and services,
erasing limitations of traditional geographic markets,
changing the historical trade-off between production standardization and flexibility.
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30. Technological Forces
The Internet is altering economies of scale, changing entry barriers, and redefining the relationship between industries and various suppliers, creditors, customers, and competitors
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31. Technological Forces
Many firms now have a Chief Information Officer (CIO) and a Chief Technology Officer (CTO) who work together to ensure that information needed to formulate, implement, and evaluate strategies is available where and when it is needed
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32. Technological Forces Technological advancements can:
Create new markets,
Result in a proliferation of new and improved products,
Change the relative competitive cost positions in an industry,
Render existing products and services obsolete.
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33. Competitive Forces
An important part of an external audit is identifying rival firms and determining their strengths, weaknesses, capabilities, opportunities, threats, objectives, and strategies
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34. Competitive Forces Characteristics of the most competitive companies:
Market share matters
Understand and remember precisely what business you are in
Whether it’s broke or not, fix it–make it better
Innovate or evaporate
Acquisition is essential to growth
People make a difference
There is no substitute for quality
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35. Key Questions About Competitors
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36. Competitive Intelligence Programs
Competitive intelligence (CI)
a systematic and ethical process for gathering and analyzing information about the competition’s activities and general business trends to further a business’s own goals
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37. Competitive Intelligence Programs
The three basic objectives of a CI program are:
to provide a general understanding of an industry and its competitors
to identify areas in which competitors are vulnerable and to assess the impact strategic actions would have on competitors
to identify potential moves that a competitor might make that would endanger a firm’s position in the market

38. Media Monitoring
Companies that gather competitive intelligence for a fee

39. Market Commonality and Resource Similarity
the number and significance of markets that a firm competes in with rivals
Example: Automotive Industry, Fast Food
Resource similarity
the extent to which the type and amount of a firm’s internal resources are comparable to a rival
Example: Logistics (UPS and Fedex)
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40. The Five-Forces Model of Competition
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41. The Five-Forces Model of Competition
Identify key aspects or elements of each competitive force that impact the firm.
Evaluate how strong and important each element is for the firm.
Decide whether the collective strength of the elements is worth the firm entering or staying in the industry.
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42. The Five-Forces Model Rivalry among competing firms
Most powerful of the five forces
Focus on competitive advantage of strategies over other firms
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43. The Five-Forces Model
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44. The Five-Forces Model Potential Entry of New Competitors
Barriers to entry are important
Quality, pricing, and marketing can overcome barriers
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45. Barriers to Entry Need to gain economies of scale quickly
Need to gain technology and specialized know-how
Lack of experience
Strong customer loyalty
Strong brand preferences
Large capital requirements
Lack of adequate distribution channels
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46. Barriers to Entry Government regulatory policies Tariffs
Lack of access to raw materials
Possession of patents
Undesirable locations
Counterattack by entrenched firms
Potential saturation of the market
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47. The Five-Forces Model Potential development of substitute products
Pressure increases when:
Prices of substitutes decrease
Consumers’ switching costs decrease
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48. The Five-Forces Model
Bargaining Power of Suppliers is increased when there are:
Large numbers of suppliers
Few substitutes
Costs of switching raw materials is high
Backward integration is gaining control or ownership of suppliers
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49. The Five-Forces Model Bargaining power of consumers
Customers being concentrated or buying in volume affects intensity of competition
Consumer power is higher where products are standard or undifferentiated
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50. Conditions Where Consumers Gain Bargaining Power
If buyers can inexpensively switch
If buyers are particularly important
If sellers are struggling in the face of falling consumer demand
If buyers are informed about sellers’ products, prices, and costs
If buyers have discretion in whether and when they purchase the product
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51. Sources of External Information
Unpublished sources include customer surveys, market research, speeches at professional and shareholders’ meetings, television programs, interviews, and conversations with stakeholders.
Published sources of strategic information include periodicals, journals, reports, government documents, abstracts, books, directories, newspapers, and manuals.
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52. Sources of External Information: Web Sites
UMFK Databases
These are clickable links in slideshow mode.

53. Forecasting Tools and Techniques
Forecasts
educated assumptions about future trends and events
quantitative, qualitative techniques
Forecasting is complex because of factors such as technological innovation, cultural changes, new products, improved services, stronger competitors, shifts in government priorities, changing social values, unstable economic conditions, and unforeseen events
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54. Making Assumptions Assumptions Document your assumptions
Best present estimates of the impact of major external factors, over which the manager has little if any control, but which may exert a significant impact on performance or the ability to achieve desired results.
Document your assumptions
Will be tested by time and actual outcomes
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55. Industry Analysis: The External Factor Evaluation (EFE) Matrix
Economic
Social
Cultural
Demographic
Environmental
Political
Governmental
Technological
Competitive
Legal
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56. 5 Steps (Page 77-78) List key external factors
10-20 (balanced 5&5  10&10)
Opportunities then threats
Assign weights from 0.0 to 1.0 based on importance
Sum of all weights across all factors = 1
Assign a rating from 1 to 4 for all factors where
4 = the firm’s response is superior
3 = the firm’s response is above avg
2 = the firm’s response is average
1 = the firm’s response is poor
Multiply the rating by the weight
Sum the weighted scores

57. EFE Matrix for a Local Ten-Theater Cinema Complex
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58. Industry Analysis EFE Total weighted score of 4.0
Organization response is outstanding to threats and weaknesses
Total weighted score of 1.0
Firm’s strategies not capitalizing on opportunities or avoiding threats
Average is 2.5

59. Industry Analysis: Competitive Profile Matrix (CPM)
Identifies firm’s major competitors and their strengths & weaknesses in relation to a sample firm’s strategic positions
Critical success factors include internal and external issues
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60. Steps to a CPM Identify Critical Success Factors (CSF)
Broad issues
Internal and external (5 of each is a good mix)
Assign a weight to each CSF
Must add up to 1
Assign a rating for your firm and each of your competitors
4 = major strength
3 = minor strength
2 = minor weakness
1 = major weakness
Multiply weight by rating
Sum the weighted ratings and compare

61. An Example Competitive Profile Matrix
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