1. THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
EQ: How does level of development impact population growth?
INTRO VIDEO: WATCH ME!

2. What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
The demographic transition model explains the transformation of countries from having high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a result of development.
In developed (wealthy/Western) countries this transition began in the 18th century and continues today.
Less developed (poor) countries began the transition later and many are still in earlier stages of the model.

3. Demographic Transition Model
There are three factors accounted for in the DTM:
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Total Population
The Natural Increase Rate, is represented as the space between the lines for Birth Rate and Death Rate Births-Deaths=Natural Increase Rate
DRAW AND LABEL THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
NATURAL INCREASE RATE

4. Demographic Transition Model
The DTM is broken down into four major stages and a possible stage 5. Each stage of development causes changes in the rate (fast or slow growth) at which the population grows.
NATURAL INCREASE RATE

5. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1
Both high birth rates and death rates fluctuate in the first stage of the population model giving a small population growth (shown by the small total population graph).

6. Stage One
Birth Rate and Death rate are both high. Natural Increase Rate is slow and fluctuating.
Birth Rate is high because of:
Lack of family planning
Need for workers in agriculture
Death Rate is high because of:
High levels of disease
Famine
Lack of clean water and sanitation
Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least Economically Developed Countries (LEDC's) today.

7. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 2
Birth rates remain high, but death rates fall rapidly causing a high population growth (as shown by the total population graph).
NATURAL INCREASE RATE

8. Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria
Stage Two
Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate is falling. Total Population begins to rise steadily.
Death Rate is falling as a result of:
Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)
Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)
Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria

9. Stage 2
Kenya

10. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 3
Birth rates now fall rapidly while death rates continue to fall. The total population begins to peak and the population increase slows to a constant.
NATURAL INCREASE RATE

11. Stage Three Reasons behind birth and death rate falling:
Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. Total Population rising.
Reasons behind birth and death rate falling:
Family planning available
Lower Infant Mortality Rate
Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
Increased standard of living
Changing status of women

12. Stage 3
Brazil

13. Demographic Transition Model
Stage D / 4
Both birth rates and death rates remain low, fluctuating with 'baby booms' and epidemics of illnesses and disease. This results in a steady population.
NATURAL INCREASE RATE

14. Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain
Stage Four
Birth Rate is low.
Death Rate is low.
Population steady.
Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain

15. Stage 4 UK

16. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 5?
A stage 5 was not originally thought of as part of the DTM, but some western countries are now reaching the stage where total population is declining where birth rates have dropped below death rates.
NATURAL INCREASE RATE

17. Stage Five Typical of Germany Birth Rate slight fall.
Death Rate stable.
Natural Increase RATE : gentle decrease
Reasons for changes in birth rate:
Family planning
Better health
Reasons for changes in death rate:
Good health care
Reliable food supply
People are generally living longer

18. Germany
Stage 5

20. What are the limitations?
What limitations do you think there could be with the model?
It does not include the influences of migration
It assumes that all countries will go through the same pattern
There is no time scale
Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very different in different countries

21. CLOSURE
Answer the question below as we view the video. What is the relationship between a country’s level of wealth/development and the rate at which their population grows? HANS ROSLING and the DTM