1. What is Theory?

2. Theory is NOT: Correlation Description Interpretation Absence of data
Ideology

3. Theory IS:
A general, abstract explanation

4. Theories simplify reality
The world is complex
Theories tell us what to pay attention to

5. Theories have empirical implications
Assume the existence of a real world
Aim to increase understanding, not to accomplish political, moral, or social ends
Have empirical implications
If X, then Y, where X and Y are observables

6. Social theories Explain social rather than individual outcomes
We are interested in explaining the behavior of social systems rather than of individuals

7. Social theories
Are composed of
Causal relations
Causal mechanisms

8. Causal Relations The outcome The thing you are trying to explain
Also called
Dependent variable
Effect

9. Causal Relations, cont’d
The cause
A factor such that change in it is associated with change in the outcome
Also called
Independent variable

10. Causal Relations, cont’d
So, X causes Y if by modifying X, one can affect Y
An explanation includes an assertion of such a causal relation

11. Causal Mechanisms The link between the cause and the outcome
In other words, the process through which the cause leads to the outcome
We will say more about this later

12. How do we know which theory is best?
Empirical evidence
Theories produce empirical predictions about how change in a causal variable will affect an outcome variable
These predictions are called hypotheses

13. Example: Durkheim’s theory of suicide
The level of individualism in a group affects the rate of suicide in the group
Individualism – a cause
The degree to which individual activities are controlled by individuals themselves rather than by others
Suicide rate – an outcome
Some countries/groups have a low rate; others a relatively high one

14. Empirical implications
If Protestants are more individualistic than Catholics
Then Protestants in France will have higher suicide rates than Catholics in France
If unmarried men are more individualistic than married men
Then unmarried men will have a higher rate of suicide than married men

15. Empirical implications, cont’d
To determine whether the predictions are supported by the data, we must pay attention to three things:
Correlation
Causal Order
Spuriousness

16. Correlation
A change in X is associated with a change in outcome Y

17. Causal order The cause must occur before the effect
It is possible to change the value of the dependent variable by changing the causal variable
In other words, if you change X, Y will change
Cause Outcome
(x) (Y)

18. Non-spuriousness
To infer causality, all possible spurious causes of Y (the dependent variable) must be ruled out
That is, the researcher must determine that a third variable is not responsible for the observed relation between X and Y

19. Example: The Protestant Ethic
Max Weber noted that the initial geographic distribution of European industrial capitalism seemed correlated with the % of Protestants in a country
Protestantism  industrial capitalism
Possible spurious causes
Perhaps countries with large coal reserves tended to be Protestant
If coal reserves  industrial capitalism, then Protestantism is a spurious relation

20. Example The Protestant Ethic
Protestantism
Capitalism
Coal Reserves

21. Assessing theories
If the theoretical predictions are consistent with what we observe, then we have more confidence in the theory

22. Caveats Very few ‘classical theories’ live up to these expectations
They do not always explicitly articulate causal relations and causal mechanisms
Not many contemporary ones do, either

23. Theories are imperfect
Theories simplify reality
Theories must omit much, must overemphasize much
Hence, all theories are imperfect

24. How to choose between rival theories?
Ultimate criterion: empirical adequacy
The best theory is the one that is most consistent with observable empirical phenomena