1. A Quarterly Economic Update With Dr
A Quarterly Economic Update With Dr. Bruce Yandle Thursday, March 21, 2019

2. The Economic Situation Taking a Look at the 2019 Economy
Bruce Yandle
March 21, 2019

3. From Sleep Walking to a Just Right Goldilocks Economy
From Sleep Walking to a Just Right Goldilocks Economy. Or is it Hesitating?
From 1.6% GDP Growth to 2.3% to 3.1%

4. No!!!!!!
Let me out of here!
From Levitating to Hesitating

5. October 27, 2018.
Real GDP Growth: 1Q2013 – 4Q2018
2019 Est.
2.3%-3.2% ??
2Q 4.2%
4Q 2.6%
3Q 3.4%
2018: 3.1%

6. Employment: Year-over-Year Growth,
February 2, 2019.
Employment: Year-over-Year Growth,
1/2014 – 1/2019
Sleep Walking
Waking

7. Commercial & Industrial Loans Year-over-Year Growth, 1/2014 – 12/2018
February 2, 2019.
Commercial & Industrial Loans
Year-over-Year Growth, 1/2014 – 12/2018
Sleep Walking
Waking

8. Investment and Labor Productivity: 2014 - 2018
March 11, 2019.
Investment and Labor Productivity:

9. Labor Force and Productivity Growth: 2014 - 2018
March 12, 2019.
Labor Force and Productivity Growth:

10. Combined Productivity and Labor Force Growth:
March 15, 2019.
Combined Productivity and Labor Force Growth:
Year-over-Year

11. Fed Policy
Trade Wars
Deficits & Debt

12. 2017 Export-Supported Jobs

13. TRADE OCCURS BETWEEN PEOPLE, NOT NATION/STATES.
WHY THE HUGE TRADE DEFICIT? WE CONSUME MORE THAN WE PRODUCE. SOME PEOPLE, SOMEWHERE MUST PRODUCE MORE THAN THEY CONSUME.
FOREIGN DIRECT CAPITAL INVESTMENT—THE NEW VOLVO PLANT—DOES NOT SHOW UP IN THE BALANCE OF TRADE. THE FUNDS TO INVEST COME FROM GOODS SOLD TO THE UNITED STATES.

14. Uncertainty causes HESITATION

15. EVIDENCE? Cash instead of stocks Temps vs. permanent hires
Bonuses instead of wage increases
Revised investment plans
Surcharges instead of price increases

16. THE FEDERAL DEBT IS

17. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the “Big Five” spending categories for 2018 Federal government outlays were: Social Security benefits, $1,042 billion; Healthcare, $1,107 billion; Defense, $892 billion, and interest on the public debt, $324 billion. All the rest of government sums to $391 billion. Suppose the average interest rate paid by the U.S. Treasury for all debt outstanding rises from the September 2018 level of 2.86 percent to the September 2008 level of percent. If so, debt interest costs would rise from $324 billion to $521 billion, leaving about $191 billion for all the rest and lots of related budget cuts.

18. 2019 RECESSION????

19. Let’s go where we can find work!
Pa–
Where should we head??
Let’s go where we can find work!

20. Employment Growth: Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging
California
Colorado
D.C.
Florida
Georgia
Massachusetts
North Carolina
South Carolina
Utah
Washington

22. Population Growth:

25. It’s time to look in the crystal ball!

26. Here’s the picture I see for the U.S. for 2019:
GDP growth will hit between 2.3% and 2.8%.
Inflation will rise a bit. Look for 2.5%.
Interest rates will nudge up. 10-yr. bond: 3.10%. Mortgage rate: 4.80%.
Manufacturing continues apace.
Housing weakens; autos down.

30. Bridging the gap between academic ideas and real-world problems