1. Conceptual Models and Theories
Population
Conceptual Models and Theories

2. Thomas Malthus and Overpopulation
Dismal view of population growth
Reverend and Economist
Published An Essay on the Principles of Population in 1798

3. Major Beliefs
Believed that since population increased exponentially (building on the previous year’s population), that it would soon outstrip the amount of food that was able to be produced.
Food increases linearly – you need a certain amount of space
A country only has so much space for the food to be grown on – spatial confinement of agriculture

5. Criticisms of Malthus
Malthus was highly religious and believed that starvation and poverty could help humankind learn virtue
Malthus did not foresee 2 developments that render his theory implausible
1. Globalization – countries can acquire food that they could not produce otherwise through trade
2. Advancements in agricultural science – the tools used to tend to crops today have allowed for much larger quantities to be produced than ever before

6. Criticisms, cont.
Since his essay was published, the population of the world has increased threefold.
The amount of food in the world has increased fivefold
Cornucopians – anti-Malthusians
who encourage population growth

8. Neo-Malthusians
Although somewhat discredited, more contemporary thinkers have embraced some of Malthus’s ideas
Overpopulation is causing so much suffering that it needs to be addressed now
We cannot wait for an evening out of the world population

9. Neo-Malthusians Continued
Inspired Marx and Engels – saw capitalist society’s poor distribution of wealth; led to the suffering of the masses
More modern Neo-Malthusians have been concerned with the environment, political upheaval and sanitary concerns of overpopulation

10. Population Control
Eugenic Population Policy – Government policy designed to favor one racial sector over another
Expansive Population Policy – Gov’t policy that encourages large families to raise the rate of population growth
Restrictive Population Policy – Gov’t policy designed to reduce the rate of natural increase

11. Case Study: China
After the communist take over in 1949, Mao Zedong encouraged the people of China to have large families to support a large labor pool that was necessary for advancement
Reversed the policy in the 1970s when there were resource shortages in China.
Because of the “one-child” rule (which has many exceptions), the TFR fell from 5.9 in 1970 to 2.7 in to 1.7 in 2007.

13. Dude, where’s my wife?
There are supposedly a projected 25 to 50 million men in China who cannot find a wife within the borders of their own country.
For every 100 female babies born, there are 120 male babies born.
There are approx. 20% more men than women
As China becomes more and more developed, Chinese men are looking for more submissive and traditional wives from surrounding developing countries like Vietnam, where women are less likely to be educated or work outside of the home.

15. Case Study: Russia
Russia has seen a decline in TFR since the fall of the Soviet Union
Government has started offering $10,000 cash subsidy for women having more than 1 child
Recently, in one province, a NATIONAL Day of Conception (Sept 12) was created to encourage people to have larger families – free car to anyone who had a baby 9 months later