1. October 18-20, 2010
LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA

2. October 18-20, 2010 Airport Capacity Session Kent Duffy
LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA
Airport Capacity Session
Kent Duffy
Senior Airport Planner
Federal Aviation Administration

3. Agenda FAA Airport Capacity Guidance
Airport Capacity and Delay AC Replacement
NextGen and Airport Capacity Planning 3 3

4. FAA Airport Capacity Guidance
Methods, approach, data sources, and coordination for capacity analysis will vary substantially with airport complexity and project scope
Multiple FAA sources for capacity guidance:
AC 150/5070-6B Airport Master Plans
AC 150/ Airport Capacity and Delay
FAA Airport Benefit Cost Analysis Guidance
FAA JO T Air Traffic Control
AC 150/5300 Airport Design
Goal is to develop a capacity analysis that is reasonable, defensible, and adequate to inform project decisions 4 4

5. Plan for the Capacity Analysis supporting multiple needs
Master Plan Capacity Analysis Method/ Approach
Baseline Capacity
NEPA Noise/Emissions Document
Alternatives Screening and Selection
ADPM vs AAD
BCA Delay Savings

6. Choose an appropriate Method/Approach
Example Model Types
Rules of Thumb/Handbook
Capacity and Delay AC
Analytical/Spreadsheets
Airport Capacity Model
Airport Delay Model
Queuing Models
DELAYS
Step-Event Models
TAAM, SIMMOD
ADSIM, RDSIM
Human-in-the-Loop
Tower Simulators
Less
More
Data, level of detail, complexity, time/cost
--Less can be more
--More can be more
--Spreadsheet and analytical models can be really effective to narrow alternatives
--Step-Event Models often needed for BCA
Reach consensus with Sponsor, FAA, operators, and other stakeholders in advance on approach

7. Data Sources
Operational Data
Surveillance data: FAA ASR, PDARS, airport systems (e.g., ANOMS)
Aviation System Performance Metrics aspm.faa.gov
Air Carrier movements: Gate Out, Wheels Off, Wheels On, Gate In (OOOI)
ETMS, ASQP, and other sources
ATC and Operators
Coordination with the ATCT and/or TRACON is vital, early and throughout the project
Airline Chief Pilots can be excellent resources
Airline Gate Schedules
Other
National Climatic Data Center – hourly weather observations
Bureau of Transportation Statistics – Airline Performance/Delays/Costs
ASPM has ETMS, ASQP, ATADS, OPSNET,
Comprehensive, detailed data sources exist to support capacity analysis

8. Metrics and Limitations
Range of potential metrics:
Annual Capacity/Annual Service Volume (ASV)
Hourly Capacity/Throughput
15-minute demand/capacity throughput can be helpful in examining impact of schedule peaks
Pareto curves can be useful in showing capacity ranges during Arrival Push, Departure Push, and Mixed Operations
Average Delay and 90th or 95th Percentile Delay
Recognize Limitations, particularly for runway-centric models
Ability of the airspace to move aircraft to/from the runway
Taxi movements, runway crossings, and gates can be significant constraints
Weather: VFR/MVFR/IFR and Minimum Vectoring Altitude
Typical Metrics

9. Key Points
In an era of airline schedule uncertainty, evaluate demand levels not specific years
Recognize effect of airline schedule peaks on results
ASV is a screening tool not project justification
Identifying airports as ‘congested’ or having ‘unacceptable delay’ is a moving target
Recognize limitations of data and models in interpreting results
Be wary of inadequate analysis – there is never time to do it right, but there is always time to do it over
Adequate coordination with ATC and operators can substantially improve confidence in the analysis 9 9

10. Capacity and Delay AC Replacement AC 150/5060-5
Tech Center Draft AC + Rules of Thumb
Legacy 150/ ~1983
Data Sources
Policy and Technical Guidance
ACRP 3-17
Capacity
Airside/Airspace Capacity and Delay Factors
ACRP 3-20
Delay
NPIAS Order Update
New AC -6
~2012?
NextGen Performance Factors 10 10

11. NextGen: Evolution of ATC
Procedural Based Control
Where we think the aircraft is
Surveillance Based Control Where we know the aircraft is
Past
Today
Trajectory Based Control Where we know the aircraft will be
NextGen
Landmark Navigation
Radio Beacons
Position Reports
VOR/DME
RADAR
Performance Based Navigation
Precise Aircraft Position
4DT Trajectory Based Operations 11

12. Mid-Term NextGen Surveillance and Navigation Improvements
Service
Today’s (Legacy) ATC
NextGen – Incremental Roll-Out
Airborne Surveillance
Radar
ADS-B Out
ADS-B In
Precise aircraft position w/ADS-B out
Traffic and Flight Information Broadcasts w/ADS-B In
Navigation
VOR, DME
Area Navigation (RNAV)
Required Navigation Performance (RNP)
RNAV everywhere and RNP where beneficial
Instrument Approach Access
ILS, VOR
WAAS/LPV (near Cat I)
GBAS (potential Cat II/III)
500 LPVs per year to all qualifying runways
GBAS can support 26 IAPs from single installation
Surface Surveillance
Eyeball
Legacy ASDE
ASDE-X with Data Distribution Units
Multi-Lateration
ADS-B
Surface Traffic Management
Surface Collaborative Decision Making
**need to animate**
Provide better title
Distinguish between RNAV and RNP
RNAV is everywhere, upwards of 90-95% of the airline fleet currently equipped
RNP provides access to airports with serious terrain, as well as the potential to optimize congested terminal airspace to deconflict multiple airports
NextGen systems provide various benefits to airports of different sizes and missions 12

13. Today’s Runway Capacity
Delays
Optimum Capacity (VFR)
Arrival + Departure Hourly Capacity
Recovery
Reduced Capacity (IFR)
Time

14. NextGen Runway Capacity
Reduced Separation?
Maintain Capacity during Inclement Weather
More precise merging and spacing
Equivalent Visual Operations
Optimum Capacity (VFR)
Arrival + Departure Hourly Capacity
Reduced Capacity (IFR)
Again…nextgen is about knowing where the aircraft is
Time 14

15. Backup

16. General use at Airports
NextGen is a system of systems that will provide benefits to different sizes of Airports
General use at Airports
Mid-Term NextGen Benefits
Non-Hub
Small Hub
Medium & Large Hubs
Improved access with WAAS/LPV approaches
More precise surveillance with ADS-B
Improved safety and situational awareness with moving maps, TIS-B, FIS-B, and reduced runway incursions
Deconflict airspace in complex multi-airport regions with RNAV and RNP
Maintain visual capacity during inclement weather with Equivalent Visual Operations
More efficient surface movements with surveillance and Surface Trajectory Management
Enhanced flexibility in future airport development plans with revised planning standards for Closely Spaced Parallel Operations (CSPO) and NAVAIDs critical areas
Reduced environmental impact with Optimized Profile Descents and RNAV/RNP routes that are noise-sensitive
Access & Surveillance
Safety
Capacity & Efficiency
Capabilities – equiv visual ops, deconflict airspace, etc.
Design Flexibility
Environment 16

17. NextGen and Airport Capacity Planning
NextGen improvements to precisely separate aircraft and redesign airspace should help airports to better maintain optimum (visual) runway throughput during most inclement weather
Several approaches to Closely Spaced Parallel Runway Operations (CSPO) that are enabled by ADS-B, RNAV/RNP, PRM-A, and new automation
Increased use of dependent, staggered approaches can improve efficiency for runways spaced less than 2,500 feet apart using FAA Order criteria
Revised blunder assumptions may lead to reductions in the runway separation needed for independent arrivals to as low as 3,000 feet with RNAV/RNP/LPV/GLS or ILS
PRM-A may allow for independent arrivals to runways spaced as low as 2,500 feet
In the long-term, ongoing research on paired or tandem approaches is aimed at further reducing runway spacing for simultaneous arrivals
NAVAID critical areas on the airport surface may be substantially reduced if ground-based NAVAIDS are decommissioned in favor of LPV and GLS approaches
Single Runway
Parallel Runways
308: SEA and DEN in 2010
Converging and intersecting runways
Ground NAVAIDs
As NextGen evolves, airport planning standards will be revised so that airports can integrate these factors into their long-term planning 17