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International Economics and European Economic History Pier Francesco Asso, Università di Palermo credits; Wednesday-Thursday: 8-10, Collegio San Rocco
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Reading list, lectures and presentations
3 blocs of lectures Papers weeks of lectures Bloc 1. Growth and inequalities: institutions, individuals, territories 1. Acemoglou; 2. Franzini and Pianta; 3. Asso Bloc 2. Globalization: financial markets; LDC 4. Rodrik; 5. Schmukler. Bloc 3. European Integration: the Euro crisis and central banking 6. Anand, Gupta, Dash; 7. Goodhart Students’ presentations, 1-2 weeks Class presentations on a research topic. Methodology + results. 15 minutes/group. Voluntary basis: TBD before April 18.
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Some useful things to know before we start
What about the teacher? Visit his blog: What for? Find materials (papers, slides, previous tests etc.) Put questions on previous lectures or other topics Send your own answers to previous tests What about the intermediate test? yes! Devoted to bloc 1 (3 papers) when? in mid-April. Date TBA What about the value of the presentation? Bonus from 0 to 3 points added to the intermediate and final test. Other issues? Please write (on the blog)
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Background knowledge Language Basics of International Economics
Basics of Economic and European history What about if you don’t have any? Some suggested readings … Please, ask your teacher …
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Some Keywords – Some Topics
Economic growth in Historical Perspective Inequalities – income, wealth, territorial … Globalization and Integration in Economic History and Theory The Great financial crisis – markets, authorities, policies Europe: benefits and shortcomings
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Syllabus of the course (bloc 1)
Growth, Institutions, Inequalities What world our grandchildren will inherit? (Acemoglou-Robinson) What are the main engines of growth? (economic and non-economic) What is the role of institutions, politics, culture, social phenomena etc.? How do you explain inclusive growth? The making and relevance of inequalities (Franzini and Pianta) How do we measure inequality? Main trends of inequalities. Some possible explanations of inequalities Inequalities in wealth and income New perspectives on old inequalities: the North-South divide (Asso) The Southern question in history and in the XXI century The relevance and the explanation of within inequalities
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Syllabus of the course (bloc 2)
The economic theory of globalization and LDCs (Rodrik+Schmukler) Distinction #1: real globalization vs financial globalization Distinction #2: Costs vs benefits of RG and FG Burning issue #1: the disappointment of FG (specially for LDC) Burning issue #2: failure of policies to reduce the dangers of globalization (Tobin tax etc.)
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Syllabus of the course (III)
The European crisis: the Euro and the Single Market EURO ( ) (Anand) Origins of the EMU. History, theory, treaties etc. Discussions of pros and cons of the single currency Main features of the Euro crisis ( ) Possible ways out (euro exit, institutional reforms etc.) The evolution of central banking (Goodhart) History of central banking from monetarism (1970s) to the Great financial crisis (2008-9) Recent developments in CB practices: Quantitative Easing etc.
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GDP Growth, 2007-2017 for major areas
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GDP trends, : Eu, US, G7
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Real GDP relative to 2006 – selected areas
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Italy: a case of double dip
Italy: a case of double dip. Recession ended only in 2014; Recovery has a slow pace
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GDP per capita: Eu divergence vs non Eu convergence
Fonte: World Economic Outlook Database, October 2015
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Italy: crisis or long term economic decline
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Italy’s economic decline: the productivity gap
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Italy vs US. From the postwar «miracle» to the decline
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The great regional divide: Ypc (townhalls, 2014)
BIG CITIES Milano Bologna Roma Firenze Torino Venezia Genova Bari Napoli Palermo Reggio Calabria
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Wealth inequalities are growing
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The most important graph in the world: the elephant graph
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How was it possible. How could it happen. Who is to be blamed
How was it possible? How could it happen? Who is to be blamed? Some interpretations Finance. Excessive growth of financial markets (fragility, inefficiecy, deregulation, abuses etc.) Global imbalances (external disequilibriano growth: “savings glut”) Inequalities (against the poor; the middle class; wage earners etc.) Globalization. Excessive, against more acceptable forms of integration Policy. Policy failures (monetary, economic, taxation, etc.) Europe. Many institutional failures … Good or bad marriage? Structural and human factors (technology, communication, demography, fraud, corruption, conflicts of interest etc.)
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GDP (% world) Fonte: World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013
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GDP (% world) Fonte: World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013
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Italy: double dip; decline, slow growth
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Collapse of trade
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Italian economic decline in historical perspective
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Unemployment rate (%) Fonte: World Economic Outlook Database, October 20135
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Inequalities and globalization
The biggest losers (other than the very poorest 5%), or at least the 'non-winners,' of globalization were those between the 45th and 90th percentiles of the global income distribution whose real income gains were essentially nil“. "These people, who may be called a global middle class, include many from former Communist countries and Latin America, as well as those citizens of rich countries whose incomes stagnated.“ Moral of the graph: middle and working classes in developed countries languished
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Economic freedom and economic growth
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Repercussions of the Global Financial and Euro Crisis
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Italy, real GDP p.c., 1980-2010 stagnation and decline
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China vs The US
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Income Inequality in Historical Perspective
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