1. Air-Sea Interactions in the SAMS Region Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE III Reunião de Análise e Previsão Climática do PMTCRH para o Nordeste do Brasil em 2005. Recife, 17 de março de 2005.

2. SAMS CLIMATE VARIABILITY & CONVERGENCE ZONES From: Grodsky and Carton (2002) ITCZ SACZ SITCZ

3. Seasonal Precipitation Anomaly Correlation CPTEC AGCM simulation and CAMS precip. DJF MAM From: Marengo et al. (2002)

4. Nordestes Rainfall Predictability personal com. L. Marx COLA

5. 80 0 W 60 0 W 40 0 W 20 0 W 0 0 20 0 E 20 0 N 0 0 20 0 S 20 0 N 0 0 20 0 S (B) (A) WET A COOLER SST WARMER SST ITCZ A The Atlantic ITCZ ITCZ A A COOLER SST WARMER SST DRY Adapted from: C. A. Nobre and L. C. B. Molion (1988) Meridional Gradient SSTA

6. ATLANTIC ITCZ POSITION AND OLR ANOMALY CORRELATION

7. MAM CPTEC AGCM T062L28 ANOMALY CORRELATION TAUY RAINFALL

8. South Atlantic Convergence Zone & SSTA

9. Prescribed SST anomaly fields COLDWARM Nobre et al. (2002)

12. Chaves and Nobre (2004) SST DIFFERENCES: OGCM EXPERIMENTS Warm-Ctrl: Wind + SW Cold-Ctrl: Wind + SW

13. CPTEC CGCM SISTEMATIC ERRORS

14. DFJ Precip Anomaly Correlation AGCM SIMULATIONS CGCM PREDICTIONS (October IC)

15. CPTEC CGCM – AGCM DFJ PRECIP ACOR

16. Observations: The PIRATA Array R/V ANTARES

17. The PIRATA BACKBONE and the SW EXTENSION Background map: Mean No. of SST observations/month COADS 1961-90 (LAMEPE-2002) (INMET-2004) To be moored by July 2005.

18. PIRATA SWE & JASON/T-P ground tracks

19. ITCZ Sounding Experiment-2006 CTD Stations SPSP F. Noronha Fortaleza Natal

20. Final Remarks Convergence zones represent important mechanisms modulating precipitation variability over South America. ITCZ: planetary scale, strongly modulated by SST: – Prediction of SSTA over the tropical (South) Atlantic. SACZ: Regional scale, coupled phenomena: –1-Tear approach is a need. Needs: –Coupled model development (eastern basin St. deck), –Coupled data assimilation, –Ensemble prediction techniques, –Sustained ocean observation strategies (e.g. PIRATA)…