1. Workforce & Economic Outlook
Dennis K. Winters
Chief Economist
Department of Workforce Development
4th Annual Partner Ideas Exchange Forum
January 29, 2019
Madison, WI

2. Total Non-farm Jobs
Source: LMI, OEA

3. Economic Outlook Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA

4. Economic Outlook Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA

5. Lamenting Economic Theory
“… every time the economy strengthens, ‘they want to raise [interest] rates again.’”
-- The Finance 202; July 25, 2018

6. Projected Population Change 2015 - 2035
Source: WI Dept. of Administration Demographic Services Center and U.W.-Madison Applied Population Lab

7. Projected Population Change 2015 – 2025
People Aged 65 & Older

8. Wisconsin’s Workforce Growth The New Economy
WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE GROWTH BECOMES FLAT
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

9. How Employment is Tracking

10. GDP
Inflation
Interest Rates
Recession

11. Economic Growth

12. Slower Consumption GDP Less stimulus Tax cuts run course Trade Housing
Autos

13. Mortgage Rates

15. Some cost push Trade Inflation Wages Commodity prices
Global v. Domestic capacity
Tarriffs

16. Inflation

17. How well managed Cost of capital Interest Rates GDP Inflation
Trade, currencies
Cost of capital
Non-residential investment
Housing

18. Effective Federal Funds Rate
Interest Rates
Effective Federal Funds Rate
Source: fred.stlouisfed.org

19. Uncertainty Self-fulfilling Recession Trade/Investment Profits/Stocks
Consumption
Self-fulfilling
Less Consumption/More Savings
Panic

21. Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

22. Current expansion; July 2009 - ?; 116 months (February)
There have been 11 business cycles since 1945
There have been 33 business cycles since 1854
Average post-war recession lasted 11.1 months
Great Recession lasted 18 months
Great Depression lasted 43 months
Recession of 1873 lasted 65 months

23. Questions?
- Questions?