1. Do we have a
Decadal Prediction Vision?

2. Decadal prediction interests
WGSIP
seasonal to decadal prediction
WGCM
climate change
CMIP
MIPS and WIP Panels
CLIVAR
decadal variability and predictability focus
Grand Challenge “concept” group
develop concept then ….
CLIVAR
CMIP
CLIVAR
WGCM
Grand Challenge
WGSIP
Grand Challenge

3. A curious coincidence DCVP “Working Group” 50% of membership in common
DVCP co-chairs on DCPP Panel
DCPP co-chairs not on DVCP Panel

4. DCPP Panel has representatives from:
WGSIP
seasonal to decadal prediction
WGCM
including members of CMIP and WIP Panels
CMIP
including WIP Panels
CLIVAR
decadal variability and predictability focus
has apparently become the decadal climate variability and predictability (DCVP) focus (Working Group?)
50% of members from DCPP including co-chairs
Grand Challenge “concept” group
WGSIP
WGCM
CLIVAR
CMIP
Grand Challange
DCPP
Panel

5. Can we unify several the interests in decadal prediction?
WGSIP
WGCM
CLIVAR
CMIP
Grand Challange

6. Where does a decadal prediction fit?
WGSIP
WGCM
WGSIP
WGDP?
Decadal prediction:
- annual, multi-annual, up to a decade
- initialized forecasts of both forced and internally generated
components of variability

7. Whither decadal prediction?
Many groups/organization have interests in decadal prediction
Panels, WGs, foci, concept groups …..
Need consolidation - not divergence
Should carefully consider a WGDP