1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook
Dec. 14, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.0
94.0
90.2
89.1
92.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
168.4
174.6
176.6
178.9
176.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,602
15,148
14,604
14,626
14,930
Beg. Stocks
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,140
1,781
Imports 67 57 36 45 50
Total Supply
15,401
16,942
16,934
16,811
16,751
Feed & Residual
5,120
5,470
5,298
5,500
5,575
Ethanol
5,224
5,432
5,605
5,600
5,700
Food, Seed, & Other
1,422
1,453
1,480
1,490
Exports
1,898
2,294
2,438
2,450
2,425
Total Use
13,664
14,649
14,793
15,030
15,190
Ending Stocks
1,571
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.61
3.36
3.60
3.90
Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for Dec. reports 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
82.7
83.4
90.1
89.1
82.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
48.0
52.0
49.3
52.1
50.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,926
4,296
4,411
4,600
4,090
Beg. Stocks
191
197
302
438
955
Imports 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,140
4,515
4,734
5,063
5,070
Crush
1,886
1,901
2,055
2,080
2,075
Seed & Residual
122
146
112
128
127
Exports
1,936
2,166
2,129
1,900
Total Use
3,944
4,214
4,107
4,277
Ending Stocks
793
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
8.95
9.47
9.33
8.60
8.75
Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for Dec. reports 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

5. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

9. Arable land

11. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soybean Meal Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Ethanol Production
Source: EIA

19. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

20. Current Corn Futures
4.00
3.68
Source: CME Group, 12/13/2018

21. Current Soybean Futures
9.44
8.83
Source: CME Group, 12/13/2018

22. 2018/19 Crop Margins
Based on futures prices

23. 2019/20 Crop Margins w/ 2018 Costs
Based on futures prices

24. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

25. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

26. Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

27. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: